Event:
The industry has warmed up, and some leading brands are pre sold in section 3.8. The industry has warmed up month on month. Tmall’s skin care / make-up sales in February increased by about 18% / – 16% year-on-year respectively (a cumulative decrease of about 10% / 19% year-on-year respectively from January to February).
Key investment points:
The implementation of the new regulations has significantly reduced the number of records, but the promotion of 3.8 is still high, and the industry has also warmed up. After the formal implementation of a series of cosmetic regulations on January 1, 2022, the number of cosmetic records decreased significantly year-on-year. According to the big data of Meili cultivation, the number of records filed by the food and drug administration was 13999 from January 1 to February 18, 2022 / a significant year-on-year decrease of 75%. Under this trend, the “3.8 quarter” big heat is still high, Tmall / jitter is opened in 2.27/2.26 tiktok, Taobao head anchor Li Jiaqi realized 77 million people watching /28 billion GMV in the evening of February 27th, far exceeding the same period in 2021. From the brand side, major brands are also promoted in advance + official publicity spokesperson / brand image ambassador: 1) Winona official publicity Zhang Junning is the spokesperson of sunscreen category; 2) Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) Shangxin VC was sold for the second time, and Zhang Ruonan, the signed brand ambassador; 3) Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) ‘s sensitive muscle brand “Mickey Mouse” on the new “emulsion mask”, the emulsion and mask combination; 4) the new “small gold needle” in the pill is resistant to the old throwing. The industry has warmed up month on month. Tmall’s skin care / make-up increased by about 18% / – 16% year-on-year in February (a cumulative decrease of about 10% / 19% year-on-year from January to February).
Tmall flagship store channel: differentiation is still deducting, but the growth rate is significantly higher than that in January. Chinese brands in February: 1) Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) : the main brand Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) / Caitang increased by 114% / 36% respectively, and the cumulative increase from January to February was 58% / 16% respectively, of which the large single product ruby / shuangkang remained the main force; 2) Winona: Winona, the main brand, increased by 105% year-on-year, with a cumulative increase of 39% from January to February, of which the sales of clear sunscreen were outstanding. After combing the product system of the sub brand Winona baby, the monthly Gmv has remained above 2 million since September 2021, and the Gmv in February reached 3.37 million yuan; 3) Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) ‘s Myer / quarter / run /BM performance increased by 98%/-16%/-19%/-32% compared with the same period last year. 4) Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) baicaoji / Yuze increased by 66% / – 31% respectively, with a cumulative decrease of 4% / 46% from January to February; 5) under Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) banner, Dr. hu’er / Yilian increased by 69% / 21% respectively, of which the cumulative increase from January to February was 60% / flat, and Dr. hu’er maintained strong brand potential; 6) MARUMI: the main brand MARUMI increased by 78.5% year-on-year, with a cumulative decrease of 31% from January to February. Make up brand love fire achieved substantial growth year-on-year. In terms of international brands in February: Estee Lauder increased by 156% year-on-year / 67% from January to February, the mystery of sea blue increased by 7% year-on-year / 12% from January to February, CPB increased by 60% year-on-year / 14% from January to February.
Tiktok channel: overall performance is stable. In terms of Chinese brands in February: 1) Korean beam Gmv reached 62.79 million yuan, of which self broadcasting accounted for 57%; 2) Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) gmv is 57.31 million yuan / box, and the proportion of self broadcast + small store broadcast is 63%; 3) Winona GMV reaches 36 million 660 thousand yuan / water box and freeze-dried mask, and the proportion of self seeding is 43%. 4) Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) its kwadi / BM live Gmv reached 33.39 million yuan and 22.06 million yuan respectively, and the proportion of kwadi self broadcasting reached 91%.
Investment suggestion: the stricter supervision has continuously improved the degree of industry standardization. Some domestic brands have gradually verified their product power, marketing power, organization power and even brand power. We are optimistic about the future development prospects of the cosmetics industry and excellent domestic brands. It is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) , Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603983) and Syoung Group Co.Ltd(300740) . Maintain a “recommended” rating for the cosmetics industry.
Risk tip: the price reduction of overseas famous brands is higher than expected; Repeated epidemics lead to slow recovery of consumption intention; The impact of medical beauty on the cosmetics industry exceeded expectations; Overseas big brands accelerate their entry into China and intensify competition; Major marketing events occur.
