In the context of double carbon, green transformation is imminent. On the one hand, after 2030, the proportion of coal in China's energy structure may decline rapidly. Green and low-carbon transformation and development is a problem that coal enterprises have to face; On the one hand, coal enterprises are mostly central enterprises and the largest provincial state-owned enterprises, which should play an exemplary and leading role in promoting the national "carbon peak and carbon neutralization". In December 2021, the central economic work conference proposed that raw material energy consumption should not be included in the total energy consumption control, and new renewable energy should not be included in the total energy consumption control, which is conducive to the development of modern coal chemical industry and green electricity. Under the policy guidance, new materials and new energy are the direction of breaking the situation.
The transformation of old and new kinetic energy is accelerated, and the urban transformation provides an opportunity for the development of coal enterprises. Taking the development of cities such as Ruhr in Germany and Pittsburgh in the United States as an example, the transformation and upgrading is the only way in the development of resource-based cities. Under this background, most coal enterprises in the region usher in the opportunity period of diversified development. Looking back on China, the "transformation of old and new kinetic energy" has been gradually put on the agenda since 2015. Shanxi, Shandong and other large traditional industrial provinces are in a period of opportunity for transformation and upgrading. The above two provinces have successively launched corresponding policies in recent years to support the integration of regional coal production capacity and the development of emerging industries, so as to provide opportunities for the transformation of coal enterprises in the province. Among them, Shanxi Province started the reorganization of provincial coal enterprises in June 2020. The former seven coal enterprises in Shanxi Province formed a new pattern of "2 + 2". The old coal enterprise Yangmei group was renamed Shanxi Huayang New Materialco.Ltd(600281) material technology group as a whole. It undertakes the leading task of the development of new material industry, adheres to the two paths of carbon based materials and digital assets, and anchors new functional fiber materials, new energy storage materials Five industrial directions: green and energy-saving building new materials, graphene new materials and light metal new materials; Shandong Province started the joint reorganization of Shandong energy and Yankuang Group in November 2020. After the reorganization, the coal output of Shandong Energy Group Co., Ltd. jumped to the third in China, and focused on three emerging industries: new energy and new materials, logistics trade and equipment manufacturing. It is positioned as the state-owned capital investment company of Shandong energy industry.
Traditional coal enterprises shoulder the important task of transformation, and most of them have transformation advantages. 1) High profitability and abundant cash flow. Since the supply side reform in 2016, the total capacity reduction and structural capacity optimization have been promoted successively, the price center of coal and coke has been boosted, and the revenue and profit of coal enterprises have increased significantly; In the first three quarters of 2021, coal prices soared, most coal enterprises achieved the best profits in history, and the profitability of the sector hit new highs. In the future, in 2022, the price guidance range of the association will be 550 ~ 850, and the benchmark price will be raised from 535 to 700, which is also a reason for relevant departments to give coal enterprises a certain "reasonable" profit in the short term in consideration of the needs of the transformation and development of coal enterprises; The center of the long-term association moved upward throughout the year, and the profit was more stable. (2) With land, raw materials and other transformation resources, transformation is possible. The old mining area has the possibility and necessity of transformation and development. The policy side has clearly put forward the plan of using coal mining subsidence areas to promote the transformation of coal enterprises as early as the 13th Five Year Plan period; In recent years, the government has paid more and more attention to the transformation and utilization of old coal mining areas, and formed a model with local characteristics. In addition, coal is also the raw material of some transformation projects. The moderate development of coal deep processing industry is not only the need of national energy strategic technology reserve and capacity reserve, but also an important measure to promote clean and efficient utilization of coal and ensure national energy security. The development of modern coal chemical industry meets the requirements of "double carbon". (3) Most coal enterprises have thermal power and chemical operation experience, and there is no great obstacle to the transformation of "new energy + new materials". As early as 2016, in order to straighten out the relationship between coal and electricity, the national development and Reform Commission encouraged coal enterprises to layout power business. At present, about 1 / 3 of the listed coal enterprises are involved in thermal power operation and have rich experience in power operation. In addition, under the background of "clean and efficient utilization of coal" strongly encouraged by the state, coal enterprises may extend the current chemical industry chain and vigorously transform to new chemical materials in accordance with the development direction of high-end green and low-carbon.
Coal enterprises have successively issued development plans, and the transformation is in the ascendant. Under the goal of "double carbon", the green transformation of traditional energy enterprises is imminent. Under the policy guidance, new materials and new energy are the breaking direction. At the same time, considering that most coal enterprises have abundant cash flow, Land & raw materials and other necessary resources for transformation, and thermal power & chemical operation experience, coal enterprises have advantages in transformation. Up to now, more and more coal enterprises have successively released development plans for new materials and new energy. The transformation of traditional energy enterprises is worth looking forward to. They are strongly optimistic about the investment opportunities for the transformation of coal enterprises this year, focusing on Power Investment energy (green power), Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) (energy storage and photovoltaic modules), Yankuang energy (modern coal chemical industry and green power), Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) (green power + new materials) Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (hydrogen energy).
Risk tip: demand fell faster than expected, coal prices fell sharply, and the transformation progress was less than expected.
