Energy substitution and increase of coal transportation volume
With the sharp rise in oil prices, coal as an alternative energy, consumption and transportation demand are expected to increase. China's main coal producing areas are located in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Western Inner Mongolia. They arrive at the port through railway transportation such as Daqin line, Shuohuang line and Zhangtang line, and then arrive at coastal consumption areas by sea. Therefore, Daqin Railway Co.Ltd(601006) , Qinhuangdao port, Tangshan Port Group Co.Ltd(601000) , Rizhao Port Co.Ltd(600017) , Ningbo Marine Company Limited(600798) and other companies are expected to benefit from the growth of coal transportation volume. In addition, Jiayou International Logistics Co.Ltd(603871) the business volume of China Mongolia coal supply chain is also expected to grow. In terms of the proportion of revenue and gross profit of coal business, Qinhuangdao Port Company Limited(601326) , Ningbo Marine Company Limited(600798) , Daqin Railway Co.Ltd(601006) is about 70% in the first half of 2021, which is flexible. From the perspective of valuation, the pe-ttm of Daqin Railway Co.Ltd(601006) and Tangshan Port Group Co.Ltd(601000) is about 8 times, and the dividend yield in 2020 is about 7%. Considering the low contribution of energy substitution to the increase of coal transportation volume and little room for profit improvement of relevant companies, the valuation level is more important. It is recommended to Tangshan Port Group Co.Ltd(601000) , Jiayou International Logistics Co.Ltd(603871) , and pay attention to Daqin Railway Co.Ltd(601006) .
Transportation substitution and railway cost performance increase
The rising oil price leads to the rising cost of highway and air transportation, while the cost of electrified railway transportation is stable, so the cost performance of railway transportation is improved, and the traffic volume is expected to shift from highway and air to railway. In terms of the proportion of fuel cost, in the first half of 2017, road freight was about 1 / 4, in 2020, road passenger transport was about 1 / 3 and aviation was about 1 / 5. The rise of fuel price has a great impact on the cost, which will be transmitted to the freight Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) , Daqin Railway Co.Ltd(601006) , Guangshen Railway Company Limited(601333) , China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co.Ltd(001213) , China Railway Tielong Container Logistics Co.Ltd(600125) and other companies are expected to benefit from the growth of traffic volume. In addition, when oil prices are high, Bohai Ferry Group Co.Ltd(603167) , which enjoys fuel subsidies, has an enhanced cost advantage compared with the highway transportation around the Bohai Sea, and the traffic volume is expected to increase. Considering that the passenger flow of the company is relatively important, it is recommended to pay attention to the substitution effect of the railway.
Commodity prices rise, benefiting the bulk supply chain
With the rise of oil prices, the prices of bulk commodities such as energy, grain and metals are expected to rise, and the revenue and profits of bulk supply chain enterprises are expected to increase accordingly. Bulk supply chain enterprises include the value of commodities into their operating income, and the income increases with commodity prices; Under the mode of providing service fee, the profit margin is stable, and the profit increases with the income. In the stage of commodity price rise in history, the profits of bulk supply chain enterprises tend to accelerate growth. The bulk supply chain is a pattern of large industries and small companies. The head company has rapidly increased its market share based on its competitive advantage, and is expected to maintain high growth in the future. Recommend high growth Zheshang Development Group Co.Ltd(000906) and high dividend Xiamen C&D Inc(600153) , pay attention to Xiamen Xiangyu Co.Ltd(600057) , Wuchan Zhongda Group Co.Ltd(600704) , Xiamen Itg Group Corp.Ltd(600755) .
Risk tip: economic growth has declined, fuel prices have fallen, and covid-19 epidemic has worsened
