Tensions between Russia and Ukraine intensified and copper and aluminum prices rose
Copper: the situation in Russia and Ukraine continues, and the risk aversion is becoming stronger and stronger. The strength of the US dollar suppresses copper, but the global low inventory level supports copper prices. Pay attention to Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) . As of March 2, Shanghai copper closed at 71520 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of 0.31%; The inventory reported 73.201 million tons, with a weekly change of 4.43%.
Aluminum: the situation in Russia and Ukraine has provoked the overseas supply of aluminum, China's import is blocked, there may be a certain gap in the supply of electrolytic aluminum, and the aluminum price continues to rise. This week's rise in the cost side led to a decline in the profits of the electrolytic aluminum industry. Pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) . As of March 2, Shanghai aluminum reported 22955 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of 0.66%; The inventory received 173251 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of 2.50%.
Rare earth permanent magnet: the price of rare earth oxide fluctuated this week. As of March 2, oxidation error (the lowest price) closed at 1080000 yuan / ton, unchanged during the week; Oxiqin (lowest price) closed at 1200000, with a weekly change of - 0.41%; Cuoqin oxide (lowest price) closed at 1090000 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of - 0.46%; Oxidation shop (lowest price) closed at 3100 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of 0.80%; Titanium oxide (lowest price) closed at 15220 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of 0.07%. The rare earth industry is in a new growth cycle, and the price is expected to continue the rising trend of the beginning of the year. There are fundamental changes in the supply and demand level of the thin industry. The orderly and highly centralized supply pattern in China and the stability of global supply have reduced the supply elasticity. It is estimated that the annual thin mining and smelting index in 2022 will be about 202000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of about 20%. In terms of demand, under the background of global low-carbon and electrification, new energy vehicles, improved energy efficiency of industrial motors, wind power, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) etc. have replaced consumer electronics and become the main driving force of rare earth permanent magnet demand, resulting in a leap in magnitude. We expect the average annual compound growth rate to be about 26% from 2022 to 25. Focus on Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(300224) , rare in the north.
Risk tip: the global economic recovery is less than expected: US inflation continues to be high; the production and sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected; the energy crisis is alleviated more than expected; the demand for magnetic materials is less than expected; Myanmar's supply recovers rapidly; Power rationing less than expected
