Market situation: ah core property index of moonlight real estate this year -3.21%
Index: Everbright real estate ah core property index rose by – 3.21% in a single month, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.6pct, Outperformed the Hang Seng Index by 1.37 PCT, Outperformed the Hang Seng Hong Kong stock connect index by 0.4pct. From January to February 2022, Everbright real estate ah core property index rose by 1.59%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 8.85pct, Outperformed the Hang Seng Index by 4.52pct, Outperformed the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Exchange Index by 4.79pct.
Individual stocks: increase this month: the average increase and decrease of sample stocks is – 8.4%; The leading gainers and losers are: Yuexiu service (+ 4.4%), Xingsheng Commerce (+ 4.1%), New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) (+ 1.9%), Xuhui Yongsheng service (+ 1.9%), Country Garden Service (+ 1.9%). From January to February 2022, the average rise and fall of sample stocks is – 5.9%; Services of Yuehui new city (+ 17.0%), services of Yuexiu new city (+ 17.0%), services of Yuehui new city (+ 17.0%), and services of Wanxiang new city (+ 17.0%).
Hong Kong stock connect: changes in shareholding ratio this month: Jinke service (+ 1.73pct.) Evergrande property (+ 0.28pct.) Poly property (+ 0.26pct.) Era neighborhood (+ 0.09pct.) Xuhui Yongsheng service (+ 0.07pct.). Changes in shareholding ratio of Hong Kong stock connect from January to February 2022: Shimao service (+ 4.37pct.) Jinke service (+ 4.31pct.) Rongchuang service (+ 2.03pct.) Poly property (+ 1.57pct.) Xuhui Yongsheng service (+ 1.37pct.).
Industry dynamic tracking: the State Council promotes the construction of pension service system in the 14th five year plan
Central: the Ministry of housing and urban rural development and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission support the development of affordable rental housing, and the State Council promotes the construction of the national pension service system during the 14th five year plan. Local: Beijing and Shanghai explore the mode of “property service + elderly care service” and release the transformation plan of old communities in 2022 in many places.
Enterprise dynamic tracking: Jinmao service launched a global sale, and Country Garden Service acquired Zhongliang Baiyue Zhijia service
Capital market dynamics: listing progress: on February 25, Jinmao service launched a global offering, planning to sell 101 million shares worldwide, raising up to HK $825 million, and will be listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on March 10, 2022. Acquisition and Merger: on February 11, country garden services acquired about 93.76% of the total equity of Zhongliang Baiyue Zhijia service.
Performance forecast: China Resources Vientiane life expects that the profit attributable to the owners of the company will increase by about 110% year-on-year in 2021, Xingsheng business expects that the profit attributable to the owners of the company will increase by no less than 40% year-on-year, and Jianye new life expects that the shareholders’ unaudited comprehensive net profit will increase by no less than 45% year-on-year.
Investment suggestion: the capital side releases positive signals, which is conducive to the improvement of sector valuation. It is suggested to pay attention to the four main lines
Since the beginning of 2022, the capital side of the real estate industry has released positive signals, the five-year LPR has been reduced by 5bp, the guaranteed housing loans have not been included in the concentration management, the new measures for the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds have been structurally corrected, and major banks have provided M & a financing support“ α The “risk” restoration has entered the implementation stage, the liquidity of the real estate industry has continued to ease, and the risk premium of the property service sector has decreased, which is conducive to the valuation restoration of the sector.
The property industry is positioned as the “grass-roots pillar of community governance”, with strong policy support from governments at all levels, “high quality and good price” is conducive to expanding the overall development space of the industry. Starting from the development trend of the industry and the company’s resource endowment, it is suggested to pay attention to four main lines: 1) platform companies with the scale of the first echelon and expected to export management and resources, recommend country garden services, and suggest paying attention to green city services, elegant life services, rongchuang services and Jinke services; 2) For the growth target of the second echelon of the scale, Xincheng Yue service and Shimao service are recommended, and it is recommended to pay attention to Jianye new life and Xuhui Yongsheng service; 3) Professional business management objects with high charging level and large profit elasticity, recommend ocean service, and suggest paying attention to New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) , Baolong commerce and excellent commercial enterprises; 4) For the property management targets of central enterprises with outstanding resource endowment, it is recommended to pay attention to the life of China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , China Resources Vientiane and CNOOC real estate.
Risk analysis: labor cost risk; Risk of value-added service expansion; Dependence risk of related parties; Outsourcing risk.
