Core view
Sales decline continued to widen, and the market is still at the bottom stage. According to the sales performance of the top 100 real estate enterprises in the first two months of 2022 released by Kerui, the cumulative full caliber sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises in February reached 104844 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.4%, and the growth rate decreased by 2.7 percentage points compared with January. In a single month, the monthly sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises in February was 463.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.5%, a record low and an increase of 5.8 percentage points compared with January, The decline has expanded for three consecutive months. We believe that the reason for the continued weakness of sales is the high base effect in the first half of 2021 and the lack of land in the second half of 2021, which led to the decline of the sales volume of real estate enterprises at the beginning of the year. From the high-frequency data we tracked, the sales area of new houses in 55 cities under key monitoring decreased by 30% year-on-year in February, of which the growth rates of first tier, second tier and third and fourth tier cities were – 0.5%, – 31% and – 41% respectively. The commercial housing sales market in first tier cities took the lead in showing signs of recovery.
The growth rate of all echelons was weak. In terms of different echelons, the year-on-year growth rates of cumulative sales of top 10, top 11-20, top 21-50 and top 51-100 real estate enterprises in the first two months were – 41.9%, – 49.3%, – 44.8% and – 38.1% respectively; The year-on-year growth rates of the above echelons in February were – 41.9%, – 58.1%, – 51.9% and – 32.4% respectively. All echelons showed weakness.
The sales growth of brand real estate enterprises continued to be negative. Among the key real estate enterprises, the ones with smaller monthly decline in February were Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) (- 27.1%), Risesun Real Estate Development Co.Ltd(002146) (- 28.3%), Vanke Real Estate (- 29.7%), rongchuang China (- 32.2%) and Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) (- 34.8%). Focus on the overall negative growth of real estate enterprises in terms of cumulative and monthly growth, of which Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) fell 79.9% year-on-year in a single month, and China Jinmao, Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Zhongliang holdings, China Olympic Park and Longguang group fell more than 60% year-on-year in a single month.
The proportion of newly added value of top 10 real estate enterprises rebounded. In the first two months of 2021, the cumulative amount of newly added land reached 169.04 billion yuan, with a growth rate of – 63.5%, a slight increase of 3.2 percentage points compared with January. Among the top 100 real estate enterprises in February, only green city and China Resources took more than 10 billion yuan, 22.4 billion yuan and 13.7 billion yuan respectively. Jindi, Zhonghai and Binjiang were followed by land acquisition amounts of 5.9 billion yuan, 5.7 billion yuan and 4.95 billion yuan respectively. Overall, the decline of land acquisition amount of top 100 real estate enterprises slowed down in February, and the proportion of land acquisition by top 10 leading real estate enterprises rebounded sharply. From the first round of land auction in Beijing, most of the land acquisition real estate enterprises are state-owned enterprises and central enterprises with strong trading and financial strength, such as CNOOC, China Resources, Greentown, etc., and the private real estate enterprises are still relatively cautious.
Investment strategy: broad credit background + policy deregulation, alpha beta. In the context of steady growth, we believe that the release of policies will be strengthened step by step, non hot cities will break the shackles of excessive regulation in the past, and the subsequent industry fundamentals are expected to usher in recovery with the gradual improvement of policies. For real estate enterprises, with the reconstruction of the industry structure and development model in the future, the operation and management efficiency and credit acquisition ability of real estate enterprises will be the key factors to be paid attention to in the medium and long term. Accelerating the liquidation within the industry means the emergence of opportunities to improve the concentration. We suggest paying attention to real estate enterprises with relatively stable operation and finance, and continue to recommend Vanke A, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) . China’s overseas development.
Risk tip: the re outbreak of the epidemic has an impact on economic expectations, the regulation policies of the real estate industry have been tightened more than expected, the real estate sales and settlement have been significantly lower than expected, and the house price has fallen more than expected
