Key investment points:
In February, Shenwan bank recorded an increase or decrease of 1.01%, underperforming the Shanghai stock index by – 1.99%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.62%. The monthly increase or decrease ranked 21st among Shenwan’s 31 primary industries. As of March 1, Shenwan bank increased or decreased by 4.29% during the year, ranking second among Shenwan’s 31 primary industries Bank Of Suzhou Co.Ltd(002966) led the rise (6.33%).
The valuation of the banking sector fluctuated. As of February 28, the overall price earnings ratio (historical TTM) of the banking sector was 5.16x, unchanged from the end of last month, with a discount of 71.87% compared with the valuation of a shares; The overall price to book ratio of the sector was 0.61x, the same as that at the end of last month, with a discount of 67.18% compared with the valuation of a shares.
As of February 28, the maturity yield of AAA 1m / 3m / 6m interbank certificates of deposit was 2.25%, 2.33% and 2.40% respectively,; The maturity yield of AA grade 1m / 3m / 6m interbank certificates of deposit was 2.36%, 2.44% and 2.53% respectively. In terms of the expected rate of return of financial products, compared with the same period last year, the expected rate of return of only 6 months increased by 1bp, the expected rate of return of 4 months was flat, and the expected rate of return of other term financial products decreased year-on-year. The weighted average interest rate of interbank lending in February was 2.06%, up 5bp month on month and flat year on year.
Investment suggestion: affected by China’s policies and the situation abroad, the market volatility increased, and bank stocks rose and fell in February. March will usher in the 2021 annual report of listed banks. According to the banking operation indicators issued by the regulatory authorities in the early stage and the performance express issued by some listed banks, it is expected that the performance of listed banks will continue to improve and the asset quality will improve, which is expected to further catalyze the valuation repair. The policy orientation of seeking progress while maintaining stability remains unchanged. Commercial banks will continue to expand credit supply, maintain the stability of total credit growth and realize orderly business expansion. According to the business layout of inclusive microenterprises, green finance and wealth management, considering the ability to acquire assets and prevent risks, it is recommended to pay attention to high-quality banks: China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) . Maintain the rating of “synchronous market” in the industry.
Risk tip: economic growth is less than expected; Policy adjustment exceeded expectations; Asset quality declined.
