\u3000\u3 Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) 129 Runa Smart Equipment Co.Ltd(301129) )
Intelligent heating overall solution provider
The company is a leading provider of intelligent heating overall solutions, with one-stop solution capability. The company has a leading market share and is expected to fully benefit from the improvement of industry prosperity brought by double carbon in the future. We keep the profit forecast unchanged. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 180 million yuan, 251 million yuan and 331 million yuan respectively, the corresponding EPS will be 244, 341 and 4.50 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 25.9, 18.6 and 14.1 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Space estimation: the scale of smart heating market exceeds 100 billion
How big is the smart heating market? The demand for the construction of heating system comes from the transformation of old communities and the construction of new communities. We estimate that the heating reconstruction area of the old community is about 2 billion square meters, and the new heating area is about 500 million square meters every year. With reference to the national three supply and one industry transformation policy, assuming that the transformation cost is 100 yuan / m2, the size of the old community in stock is 200 billion yuan and the size of the new community is 50 billion yuan per year.
Policy support: driven by old reform and dual carbon, smart heating is at the right time
How strong is the policy support? (1) Urban old reform: the state attaches great importance to urban old reform. In 2020, it issued the guiding opinions on comprehensively promoting the transformation of old urban communities, specifying that it will strive to complete the transformation task at the end of the 14th five year plan. Heating belongs to supporting infrastructure, which will be supported by the central government. (2) Carbon reduction in heating: the total carbon emission in the field of heating accounts for nearly 10% of the total carbon emission of the whole society. Under the background of double carbon, carbon reduction and energy saving in the heating link is the only way. In January 2022, the State Council issued the comprehensive work plan for energy conservation and emission reduction in the 14th five year plan. During collective learning, the general secretary stressed the importance of achieving the "double carbon" goal, and it is imperative to reduce carbon in heating.
Competitive advantage: leading technology, high-quality customers, and industry leaders are ready to go
What is the company's core competitiveness? (1) In terms of technology, the company has worked deeply in the industry for many years and accumulated profound experience. It has edited or participated in the compilation of a number of national, industrial and local standards, introduced European advanced technology, and took the lead in applying big data and AI enabled intelligent heating; (2) In terms of customers, the company has a deep understanding of customer needs, can grasp market changes in time, and the products are more suitable for customers. The company has developed the market in Shandong, a major heating province for many years, and continued to make breakthroughs in the national market. After listing, brand awareness and market share are expected to continue to improve.
Risk warning: risk of industrial policy change; Technology development risks; Market competition intensifies risks.
