\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 612 Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) )
In 2021, the revenue / performance increased by 13% / 18% to 58.691876 billion yuan, in line with expectations. On March 2, the company released the annual performance express. The revenue increased by 13.47% year-on-year to 58.69 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent increased by 18.3% year-on-year to 1.876 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent after deduction increased by 5% year-on-year to 1.589 billion yuan, of which the revenue of single Q4 increased by 13% year-on-year to 8.9 billion yuan, and the performance increased by 7% year-on-year to 378 million yuan, which is in line with expectations.
Hot sales of gold jewelry, expansion and optimization of the company’s channels, and enhancement of brand influence. According to the disclosure of the National Bureau of statistics, gold, silver and jewelry cooperatives in 2021 increased by 29.8% year-on-year, much higher than the growth rate of other categories. According to the data disclosed by China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) Association, the national gold jewelry consumption in 2021 was 711.29 tons, a year-on-year increase of 44.99%, an increase of 5.18% over 2019. In the hot market environment, as the leader of the gold jewelry industry, the company has strengthened the expansion and optimization of channels and the promotion of brand influence, so as to jointly drive the increase of market share. 1) Channel side: according to the company’s disclosure, by the end of 2021, the company had a total of 4945 stores (including 16 overseas silver buildings), with a net increase of 495 throughout the year. Under the epidemic situation, the brand market share has increased, the store coverage in the low-line market has been continuously improved, and the operation quality of stores in the high-line market has been continuously optimized. 2) Brand side: in 2021, the company launched a brand-new “classic fashion” Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) brand image, with a number of signed spokesmen and good market response. 3) Product end: Gufa gold jewelry is popular with its national cultural attributes and high-quality design. As a century old brand focusing on gold jewelry, the company maintains the rapid renewal of products. According to our calculation, the sales of new products account for about 25% in the whole year.
The “double hundred” reform has been steadily promoted and the endogenous growth momentum has been optimized. During the period, the “double hundred reform” of the company continued to be promoted. The company selected 14 subsidiaries to implement the professional manager system. The continuous reform of ownership structure and the gradually established professional manager system further optimized the endogenous driving force of the company’s development.
In 2022, the market sales continued to improve, contributing to the steady growth of the company’s performance. Since 2022, the sales of gold ornaments have continued to be hot, and the consumption demand of gold ornaments has been driven by the demand for high-quality products such as Gufa gold and wedding celebrations. From early January to early February, the sales of China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) ornaments were basically flat under the high base of the same period in 2021. During the Spring Festival holiday, according to the data of China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) Association, the national gold consumption demand was strong, with a year-on-year increase of 13%. On the other hand, the rising price of gold has also increased the investment demand. Up to now, the Shanghai Gold Exchange au99 The closing price of 99 rose by about 5.6% over the beginning of the year. At the company level, according to the good ordering data of franchisees before the Spring Festival, the company’s performance is expected to grow steadily in the future with the continuous promotion of product upgrading and innovation and channel expansion (a net increase of 400500 stores is expected in 2022).
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: the consumption attribute of gold jewelry is gradually enhanced. As a leader in the industry, the company’s product upgrading is parallel to channel exhibition stores, with stable performance growth. After the mixed reform, the ownership structure is clear, which is expected to release the vitality of the system. We raised the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 to 2.077/2.392 billion yuan, with the current price of 47.28 yuan, corresponding to 12 times of PE in 22 years, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the impact of gold price fluctuation; Covid-19 epidemic impact consumption; The impact of exchange rate fluctuations; Store expansion was less than expected.
