\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 426 Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) )
Event:
On the evening of February 28, 2022, the company issued a performance express. After preliminary accounting, the company achieved an operating revenue of 26.647 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 103.18%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 7.254 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 303.45%; After deducting non recurring profits and losses, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 7.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 309.30%; The basic earnings per share was 3.432 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 303.76%. The main reasons for the substantial growth of performance are: in 2021, affected by market supply and demand and many other factors, the prosperity of China's chemical industry is high, and the price of leading products has increased significantly year-on-year; At the same time, the company actively promoted the construction and start-up of new projects, strengthened system optimization and production control, timely adjusted the product structure, realized the stable and efficient operation of production devices, and greatly improved the business performance year-on-year.
Key investment points:
The main products are booming, and the company's annual performance has reached a record high
In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 26.647 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 103.18%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 7.254 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 303.45%; After deducting non recurring profits and losses, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 7.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 309.30%; The basic earnings per share was 3.432 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 303.76%, both reaching a record high. Among them, Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 8.412 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 106.58%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.642 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 223.23%, a slight decrease month on month. The company benefited from a year-on-year increase of 2455 yuan in the price of urea products in China, with the average price of urea rising by 2455 yuan in 2021; The average market price of DMF was 13177 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110.82%; The average market price of acetic acid was 6542 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 145.12%; The average market price of adipic acid was 10824 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.82%; The average market price of octanol was 14267 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91.15%; The average market price of ethylene glycol was 5245 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.15%.
The supply and demand pattern of the company's main products is still good, and the coal chemical route has obvious advantages under high oil prices
Under the double carbon background, due to the requirements of resource protection and energy consumption control, the new production capacity of synthetic ammonia, methanol and other chemical materials will be limited. The supply side of the company's main downstream products such as urea, DMF, acetic acid and adipic acid will still face constraints, and the industrial barriers will continue to improve. Under the background of steady demand growth, the supply and demand pattern of the company's main products will still be good. Meanwhile, the international crude oil price has been rising. On March 1, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures was US $103.41/barrel, the highest level in recent years. Under the high oil price, the cost of petrochemical products increases and the profitability decreases. The coal price is stable under the regulation of China's policies, the cost advantage of coal chemical enterprises is further highlighted, and the company's profits are expected to continue to rise.
Jingzhou base and new energy and new material projects have been put into construction, and the company's revenue is expected to double in 2024
Relying on the clean coal gasification platform, the company further extends the industrial chain, enters high value-added products, and gives full play to the advantages of flexible cogeneration; At the same time, Jingzhou base is strategically planned to break through space constraints and expand the market advantages of main products. In August 2021, Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) (Jingzhou) Co., Ltd. synthetic gas comprehensive utilization project / Park gas power platform project was officially started in Jiangling County, Jingzhou City, Hubei Province. In October 2021, the company's amide and nylon new material project (300000 t / a) caprolactam and supporting devices have opened the process, produced qualified products and entered the trial production stage; The series of technical transformation projects for increasing production and improving quality of dimethyl carbonate have been put into operation, and the series of technical transformation for increasing production and improving quality of ethylene glycol production unit with an annual output of 500000 tons has been implemented, which has the ability to jointly produce 300000 tons / year of high-quality dimethyl carbonate. The company's high-end solvent and nylon 66 high-end new material project has also been officially started in February. After completion, the company will add 300000 t / a dimethyl carbonate, 300000 t / a methyl ethyl carbonate, 80000 T / a nylon 66, 148000 T / a adipic acid and other products. The products are mainly used in new energy batteries, high-performance engineering plastics and other fields. With the continuous operation of new projects, the company is expected to double its revenue in 2024.
Profit forecast and investment rating: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be 7.283 billion yuan, 7.722 billion yuan and 8.259 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 10.13, 9.56 and 8.94 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: macroeconomic risks; Raw material price and supply risk; The downstream demand is lower than the expected risk; Project construction risk; Safety production risk; exchange-rate risks; Product development and application risks.
