\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 021 Aofu Environmental Technology Co.Ltd(688021) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the annual revenue reached 396 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 66 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7%.
Comments:
Under the background of declining prosperity of commercial vehicle industry in 2021, the company's revenue increased steadily
In 2021, the demand for commercial vehicles in China decreased, and the production / sales volume was - 10.7% / - 6.6% year-on-year respectively. At the same time, due to the implementation of the national VI emission standard for heavy vehicles in July 2021, some customers purchased vehicles in advance, resulting in a significant reduction in the demand of the commercial truck market, especially the heavy truck market in the second half of 2021. Under the background of declining prosperity of downstream vehicles, the company achieved revenue of 396 million yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 26.1%. Among them, the sales volume of honeycomb ceramic carrier, energy-saving heat accumulator and VOCs waste gas treatment device increased by + 14.0%, + 104.4% and - 50.0% respectively year-on-year. In addition, with the recovery of the international market, the company's overseas business has basically recovered to the pre epidemic level. The overseas business income in 2021 was 51 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 77.6%, which was equivalent to the income in 2019 (51 million yuan).
The profit margin of the company has declined due to the rise in the yield rate of new products and the rise in the cost of raw materials
In 2021, the company's gross profit margin / net profit margin attributable to the parent company was 42.6% / 16.6%, respectively - 9.8 / - 8.9pct year-on-year, of which the gross profit margin / net profit margin attributable to the parent company in the second half of the year was 35.3% / 9.7%, respectively - 15.8 / - 12.9pct year-on-year. The year-on-year decline in the company's profit margin is mainly due to: ① the company's good product rate of national six products is still in a gradual climbing stage, which is lower than that of national five products; ② The sharp rise in the prices of energy and materials has led to a decline in the company's profit margin. Taking raw material alumina as an example, the SMM alumina weighted index rose to 4119 yuan / ton in early November 2021, an increase of 76.18% over early January 2021, a new high in recent ten years.
Flexible adjustment of production capacity planning to increase the market share of honeycomb ceramic carrier and achieve new breakthroughs in customer expansion
In terms of capacity construction, the company will postpone the project of Shandong base with an annual output of 4 million liters of DPF carrier, the automatic technical transformation project of automobile honeycomb ceramic carrier production line in Shandong production base and the construction project of technology R & D center. At the same time, Anhui aofu will be added as the implementation subject of the construction project of technology R & D center And the construction of 12 million liters of mobile source tail gas purification honeycomb ceramic carrier project in Anhui. The company plans to have a design capacity of 36-38 million liters / year by the end of 2022. At the same time, the company continued to strengthen market development and successfully entered the supplier list of well-known vehicle or host manufacturers such as Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) , Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) , Yuchai power, Kunming Yunnei Power Co.Ltd(000903) , Cummins, Anhui Quanchai Engine Co.Ltd(600218) , Wuxi Henghe and Daimler. These high-quality customers provided the company with a continuous and stable application market of honeycomb ceramic carrier products. By the end of December 2021, the company has achieved batch supply for the national six emission standard project of 9 main engine plants.
Profit forecast and investment rating
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 109 million, 162 million and 210 million yuan, corresponding to EPS of RMB 141, 2.09 and 2.71 yuan / share, corresponding to pe33.00 yuan / share 9. 22.8 and 17.6 times, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: the policy promotion is less than the expected risk; Fluctuation risk of downstream industries; Price fluctuation and supply risk of raw materials; The risk that the capacity promotion fails to meet the expectations; R & D risks caused by national VI technical requirements
