\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 456 Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) )
Event overview
On March 2, 2022, Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) issued the fourth restricted stock incentive plan (Draft), which plans to grant a total of 1845000 shares to 297 directors, middle and senior managers and core backbones of the company, accounting for 0.2216% of the total share capital of the company, and the grant price is 23.82 yuan / share.
Based on the non net profit deducted by the company of 322 million yuan in 2020, the assessment target value of the company is: the non net profit deducted by the company from 2022 to 2024 will increase by no less than 115% / 180% / 260% compared with 2020, that is, the non net profit deducted by the company from 2022 to 2024 will not be less than 692 million yuan / 902 million yuan / 1159 million yuan.
The amortization cost of restricted shares is expected to be 188522 million yuan, 16.677 million yuan, 6.5258 million yuan and 1.4502 million yuan from 2022 to 2025.
Further bind core talents and drive the continuous high growth of cdmo. The company’s new round of equity incentive will help attract and retain excellent cdmo talents, further deepen the interest binding with core personnel, improve the company’s market competitiveness and sustainable development ability, and further promote the rapid development of the company’s cdmo business. In recent years, the company’s cdmo business has grown by leaps and bounds, driving the continuous high growth of the company’s performance. In 2021h1, the company realized an operating revenue of 1.868 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 85.34%, of which the cdmo business realized an operating revenue of 1.024 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 134.77%, accounting for 54.8% of the total revenue, and the revenue CAGR of cdmo sector in recent three years was as high as 76.89%.
Diversified customer structure, sufficient production capacity + perfect industrial chain promote the long-term and rapid release of performance. Following the acquisition of Novartis Suzhou plant, the company successively acquired Teva Hangzhou plant and Nanjing kangchuanji pharmaceutical in the second half of 2021. With sufficient capacity, it will further open the “ceiling” of cdmo business and establish an integrated platform from intermediates to APIs to preparations. In terms of customer structure, the company has also actively expanded cdmo customers and reached in-depth cooperation with outstanding pharmaceutical enterprises at home and abroad, such as Roche, first Sangong, shuotang, geelide, Beida, Shanghai Allist Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(688578) and so on. In the future, the company’s cdmo business will inject more excellent projects on the basis of Novartis’s three core products, which is expected to achieve sustained and rapid growth in a long cycle, and the company’s competitiveness and development space will be greatly improved in the future.
Investment suggestion: the three core drugs of Novartis have broad global market space, which drives the continuous high growth of the company’s cdmo revenue, and the company’s customer structure is increasingly diversified. In the future, there will be more front-end projects. We expect the company’s revenue to be 3.936 billion yuan, 5.285 billion yuan and 6.971 billion yuan respectively from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 48.7%, 34.3% and 31.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 650 million yuan, 891 million yuan and 1.187 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 70.7%, 37.2% and 33.1%; From 2021 to 2023, the corresponding valuation of the current stock price is 59, 43 and 32 times, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: price fluctuation risk of API; The product volume of Novartis is lower than the expected risk; The company’s new project promotion is less than the expected risk
