\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 039 Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.Ltd(600039) )
Q4 revenue and profit accelerated significantly, with strong endogenous growth momentum. The company released the performance express of 2021, realizing a revenue of 84.5 billion yuan, with an increase of 31% after Restatement (the same below); The total profit was 6.7 billion yuan, a significant increase of 82% year-on-year; The total revenue and profit significantly exceeded the business target at the beginning of the year (the target was 75 / 5.8 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 23% / 58% at the same time). In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.4 billion yuan, a significant increase of 79% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations (the company previously predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 5 billion yuan). Among them, q1-4 achieved 146% / 33% / 10% / 35% growth in revenue and 326% / 87% / 29% / 49% growth in net profit attributable to parent company respectively. Q4 revenue performance was significantly accelerated. The company's current business performance is good, which is expected to be mainly due to the increase of high-quality projects, actively promoting cost reduction and efficiency increase, and accelerating contract management such as project change and material difference adjustment under the background of rising raw material prices, so as to increase profits. In addition, by comparing the financial data before and after the restatement, we expect that Hangyan company, Zhenjing company and Sichuan railway construction, which have newly added consolidated statements in this period, have made little contribution to the company's revenue and performance. The growth power of the company's revenue and performance in 2021 mainly comes from the rapid growth of the company's core main business.
The infrastructure investment environment in the province is good, and Q1 is expected to continue the high growth trend. Up to now, Sichuan Province has issued 91.4 billion yuan of new special bonds in 2022, and the issuance of special bonds approved in advance has been completed, while no new special bonds have been issued in the same period of 2021. The advance issuance of special bonds is conducive to fully meet the construction fund demand of key projects in the first quarter and stimulate effective investment. According to the work report of Sichuan provincial government, the GDP target of 2022 will grow by 6.5%, which is in the forefront among the provincial and municipal targets, and the fixed asset investment of the whole society will increase by 8%. It is expected that Sichuan Province will maintain a good infrastructure investment environment in 2022. According to the official account of the company, in February 25th, the company proposed in the first quarter production and operation promotion conference that it should "take the initiative to speed up the project construction," and "in principle, we must ensure that the annual revenue target of more than 20% is achieved in the first quarter". Assuming the company's revenue target of 100 billion yuan in 2022 (see the draft of the company's equity incentive plan), the company is expected to achieve revenue of 20 billion yuan in 2022q1, an increase of 50% at the same time, and continue the high growth trend.
The lithium industry is expected to continue to benefit from the boom. Recently, the price of lithium iron phosphate has continued to rise, and the lithium battery industry chain has maintained a high outlook. On the one hand, the company plans to introduce Sichuan energy investment group and Byd Company Limited(002594) as strategic investors in the lithium battery sector, and plans to establish joint ventures with Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) , Byd Company Limited(002594) and Hefeng to comprehensively develop the phosphate rock resources and lithium iron phosphate project in Mabian County, continue to develop the upstream lithium ore and phosphate mining business, bind the downstream battery manufacturers and strengthen the linkage ability of the industrial chain; On the other hand, continue to promote the first phase of cathode material project (10000 tons / year, which has been officially put into operation and stable supply) and the first phase of precursor project (20000 tons / year, which has completed preliminary work such as feasibility study). As the company continues to make up for the shortage of lithium ore, phosphate ore and other resources, the production of lithium battery cathode materials and precursors of the company is expected to accelerate, which is expected to continue to benefit from the high prosperity of the lithium battery industry.
As a typical enterprise in the industry, the company is expected to benefit. At present, although local infrastructure financing channels are limited under the strict supervision of implicit debt, local governments can still improve the financing capacity of the capital market by supporting local listed state-owned construction enterprises to become stronger and bigger, promoting the listing of infrastructure assets, and issuing REITs. In the future, local governments are expected to focus resources on supporting state-owned listed infrastructure companies, relevant listed companies are expected to enter a new stage of rapid development, and the valuation center is expected to be improved. As a leading local infrastructure listed company with large regional infrastructure investment space, good regional financial situation and strong resource strength of major shareholders, the company is expected to become a typical of the above development model in China. In the future, it will continue to be optimistic about the company and the local government to create a win-win growth pattern.
Investment suggestion: we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be 5.4/7.1/8.6 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 79% / 30% / 21%, EPS of 1.13/1.48/1.79 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 10.6/8.1/6.7 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: order conversion is not as expected, policy promotion is not as expected, new business development is not as expected, infrastructure investment in the province is not as expected, etc.
