\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 22 Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) )
Event:
On March 1, the State Food and Drug Administration approved the company's application for registration of recombinant covid-19 vaccine with conditions. One year after being approved for emergency use in China in March 2021, the vaccine became the first domestic recombinant covid-19 virus protein vaccine with conditional listing.
Comments:
The approval of conditional listing may add excellent clinical data or help to strengthen the promotion of vaccines
On the one hand, covid-19 vaccine is the only recombinant protein covid-19 vaccine approved for conditional listing in China; On the other hand, the company's covid-19 vaccine, as a sequential booster needle and against the mutant strain, has shown excellent effectiveness in clinical data. Dual factors will catalyze the company to further strengthen the promotion of recombinant protein covid-19 vaccine, improve the penetration rate of the vaccine in the booster needle, and even promote the process of covid-19 vaccine going to sea. The preliminary analysis of the global phase III clinical trial data showed that the protective effect of three doses of vaccine on Delta mutant was 81.38%. In addition, according to the data in two published articles, the company's recombinant protein covid-19 vaccine, as a sequential booster needle of inactivated vaccine, shows a higher geometric titer level of neutralizing antibody to various mutant strains, which is better than homologous booster vaccination.
In 2022, the company's covid-19 vaccine sales scale at home and abroad totaled billions of yuan
In 2021, the recombinant protein covid-19 vaccine product is expected to contribute more than 10 billion yuan to the company's revenue. In 2022, the official approval will help the company to further promote the recombinant protein covid-19 vaccine in China, superimposing the continuous promotion of covid-19 vaccine's overseas business. Covid-19 business will continue to contribute a lot of cash flow to the company. It is expected that the sales scale of covid-19 vaccine will be about several billion yuan in 2022.
Investment suggestions:
We maintain the performance forecast unchanged. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 30.6/29/33 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 101.7% / - 2.3% / 10.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.2/92/9.3 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 208.8% / - 9.9% / 1.7% In addition to covid-19 vaccine products, the company relies on "self research + agency" to build a rich pipeline of vaccine products, and the performance of two wheel drive company has increased rapidly. Agent: sole agent of methadone HPV vaccine and other products. The sales revenue has increased 40 times in four years, and the agreed purchase amount is nearly 20 billion yuan in 2023. Self research: micro card, meningococcal vaccine series products, 23 valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine, influenza virus split vaccine, human diploid crazy vaccine, tetravalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine and other self-developed heavy vaccine products are gradually entering the harvest period. The multi-dimensional product matrix is expected to contribute more than 10 billion yuan of income and create the second growth curve. Regardless of the impact of covid-19 vaccine business on the company's performance, we expect the company's operating revenue to be 186 / 239 / 30 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 22.7% / 28.3% / 25.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4 / 6 / 7.5 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 22.2% / 49.9% / 24.8%; The PE of the company from 2021 to 2023 is 49x / 33x / 26x respectively. Considering the sustained and rapid development of the vaccine industry, the advantages of the company's marketing team and the long-term growth brought by the continuous listing of heavy products in the next few years, we maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The risk that the market promotion is not as expected; The risk that the change of epidemic situation will affect the normal operation of the company; The risk that the progress of clinical approval is less than expected; The risk of agency business renewal failure, etc.
