Ping An View:
Review: dragged down by the real estate dilemma, the plate differentiated in the first and second half of the year. From the beginning of 2021 to early September, the building materials sector performed well driven by subdivided fields such as glass. However, since then, the building materials sector has declined as a whole due to the pressure of real estate investment, frequent credit events of real estate enterprises and cost price increases. As of December 3, 2021, Shenwan building materials sector decreased by 3.8%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.2pct, ranking 19th among 28 industries. The glass and waterproof plates open high and go low, and the cement plate is relatively flat. As of December 3, 2021, the glass plate has increased by 40%, which is better than the cement plate (- 1.4%) and waterproof plate (4.1%).
Real estate industry chain: pay attention to the valuation repair of the industry chain brought by the improvement of the liquidity of real estate enterprises. 1) Cement: looking forward to 2022, although infrastructure investment is expected to speed up under counter cyclical regulation, considering that the central government adheres to "real estate does not pierce the Meridian" and it still takes time to restore market confidence, it is expected that the downward pressure on real estate investment will be greater, and the overall demand for cement will be weaker than that in 2021. However, considering the decline of coal price, the subsequent profit side is expected to improve. 2) Waterproof: looking forward to 2022, considering the successive price increases of Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) under cost pressure, the profit margin of the industry is expected to improve gradually. At the same time, pay attention to the opportunities for valuation and repair of the waterproof industry brought by the improvement of the capital end of real estate enterprises; In the medium and long term, it is the general trend to raise the standard of the waterproof industry, and the "new waterproof regulations" of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development are also ready to go, which is expected to improve the industry concentration and overall demand. 3) Flat glass: the demand for glass is still under pressure in the short term, but if there is a significant improvement in the capital end of the follow-up real estate, the peak of house delivery in 2022 is expected to continue, superimposed on the release of backlog demand since the second half of the year, and it is expected that the demand for glass will still be supported; However, considering that the price center of glass may fall and the price of raw materials will rise, the profit margin will fall compared with 2021.
"Carbon neutralization": photovoltaic glass has a high growth period and broad space for energy-saving glass. 1) Photovoltaic glass: in 2022, with the decline of silicon material price and the improvement of photovoltaic installation demand, the volume and price of photovoltaic glass will be supported. In the long run, the growth certainty of photovoltaic industry is high, and the permeability of superimposed double glass will be improved, which will fully benefit photovoltaic glass. 2) Energy saving building glass: China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) especially for doors and windows, the energy consumption is high, and the penetration rate of Low-E glass is far lower than that in European and American countries. It is the general trend to develop low-carbon and environment-friendly green buildings under the goal of "carbon neutralization". With the tightening of China's policies and regulations and the improvement of consumers' concept of energy conservation and environmental protection, the market space of energy-saving glass in the future can not be underestimated, and the penetration rate is expected to gradually increase.
Investment suggestions: looking forward to 2022, to maintain the industry's "stronger than the big market" rating, it is recommended to pay attention to two main lines: first, the valuation of the real estate industry chain and profit repair opportunities, including the waterproof sector benefiting from the repair of real estate policies and the improvement of profit side. It is recommended to pay attention to the waterproof leaders with the ability to raise prices and underestimate values, such as Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ; For the cement sector benefiting from the restoration of real estate policies, recovery of infrastructure and improvement of profitability, it is recommended to pay attention to the cement leaders with stable performance and undervalued value, such as Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ; And the glass plate benefiting from the continuation of the completion peak; Second, pay attention to the medium and long-term industrial opportunities of green building materials under "carbon neutralization", including the development of energy-saving building glass under the concept of green and low carbon. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading flat glass, such as Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ; As well as the photovoltaic glass plate with good photovoltaic installation demand and good growth, it is recommended to pay attention to the photovoltaic glass leader Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) .
