Industry core view:
The impact of chip and raw material prices is gradually decreasing, and the industry inventory is low. It is expected that the automobile production and sales in 2022 will be optimistic, the rise of independent brands is obvious, and the market share is expected to break through the historical bottleneck. In addition, the global sales of electric vehicles will continue to grow, the penetration of intelligent networked vehicles will accelerate, and China's core parts will usher in new development opportunities in the process of globalization, It is suggested to pay attention to the core parts suppliers in high boom segments such as new energy vehicle industry, intelligent driving and vehicle networking.
Key investment points:
1. Automobile demand is optimistic and profits are expected to improve: subject to the impact of chip supply, the growth rate of automobile production and sales slowed down in the second and third quarters. It is expected that China's automobile sales will increase by 5.5% year-on-year in 2021. However, since October, China's automobile production and sales have gradually improved month on month, and the current level of terminal inventory in the industry is very low. Under the background of the gradual weakening of inventory replenishment power and chip impact, It is expected that the growth rate of automobile production and sales will remain optimistic next year. In addition, the price of raw materials peaked at the end of the third quarter. With the increase of automobile production and sales, it is expected that the profit side of the industry will also improve significantly.
2. Seizing the first opportunity of electric intelligence and continuously improving its own market share: independent brands respond well in the global "lack of core" environment. Their parts supply chain management ability is stronger than that of joint venture brands. They take the lead in recovery in the short term and benefit from the development trend of electrification and intelligence in the long term. Independent brands seize the first opportunity of electric intelligence and are expected to continuously improve their market share.
3. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has been accelerated, and the globalization of core parts has been promoted: the majority of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles are non operating vehicles. There is strong consumer demand in the private sector, continuous technological innovation and rich supply of high-quality models. The sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles continues to exceed expectations, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached more than 15% in October, It is estimated that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles is expected to reach 3.4 million in 2021 and more than 5 million in 2022, with the penetration rate exceeding 20% in advance. Overseas, the U.S. electric vehicle policy is expected to increase to promote the growth of its sales of new energy vehicles. Although the subsidy policies of some countries in Europe are weakened, the pressure on carbon emissions is still large, which directly forces car companies to stably promote new energy vehicles. Driven by the promotion of major markets such as China, Europe and the United States, it is expected that the global sales volume will exceed 10 million in 2022, and the globalization of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) auto core parts will be well promoted. In particular, the demonstration effect of Tesla's local suppliers is expected to have greater opportunities to enter the global auto group supply system.
4. With the rapid development of intelligent vehicles and the accelerated iteration of intelligent cockpit, ADAS and Internet of vehicles: with the vigorous rise of new technology applications such as artificial intelligence, Internet, big data and 5g and the reform of automobile industry, intelligent vehicles have become an important strategic direction for the development of automobile industry. Short term intelligent cockpit has become the differentiated core competitiveness of automobile enterprises, and the cockpit has a large screen The application trend of multi screen interaction and LCD instruments is significant, and the value of intelligent cockpit is gradually increasing. In addition, thanks to the development of intelligent vehicles, the assembly rate of ADAS continues to increase. In the first half of 2021, the assembly rate of L2 level ADAS will exceed 15%, and it will be in the acceleration stage in the future. According to the latest five-year plan of independent brands, China may usher in the production of L4 level autonomous driving models in 2025. The Internet of vehicles and intelligent driving complement each other. The commercial use of 5g promotes the Internet of vehicles to enter the 5g-v2x development stage, and on-board equipment manufacturers and software developers usher in development opportunities.
5. Investment suggestions: the rise of independent brands, the welcome machine for automotive electric intelligent core parts, It is suggested to pay attention to two aspects: (1) in the passenger car sector, the rise of independent brands and the continuous improvement of market share. The growth of passenger car production and sales is also expected to drive the performance recovery of independent brand car enterprises. (2) As the supplier of electric intelligent core parts and components, the parts company has stronger toughness and higher growth compared with the downstream vehicles. Especially at the time of the reform of the electric intelligent industry, Chinese parts and components have made great progress in some fields, and the globalization of Chinese parts and components has been well promoted, with a forward-looking layout of high-quality parts for electric, intelligent and networked tracks The component company has ushered in a second new opportunity for development.
6. Risk factors: the sales volume of vehicles is lower than expected, the sales volume of global new energy vehicles is lower than expected, the price of raw materials rises sharply, and the supply of chips is lower than expected.
