\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 352 S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) )
Conclusions and suggestions:
Event: S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) released on the evening of March 2, the company plans to buy back the company’s shares with its own funds of 1-2 billion yuan through centralized bidding, and the repurchase price shall not exceed 70 yuan / share. The repurchased shares will be used to implement the employee stock ownership plan or equity incentive plan, and the repurchase period is within 6 months from the date when the company’s board of directors deliberates and approves the repurchase plan.
The stock repurchase plan shows confidence: if the repurchase price is 70 yuan and the repurchase lower limit is 1 billion yuan, the number of shares that can be repurchased is expected to be no less than 14285700 shares, accounting for about 0.29% of the total share capital; According to the repurchase price of 70 yuan and the repurchase ceiling of 2 billion yuan, the number of shares that can be repurchased is expected to be no less than 285714 million shares, accounting for about 0.58% of the total share capital. This round of repurchase will be used for employee stock ownership plan or equity incentive, which will help to further improve the long-term incentive mechanism, fully mobilize the enthusiasm of employees, improve personnel stability, consolidate the company’s competitive barriers, avoid external competition caused by brain drain, highlight the confidence of management and enhance the confidence of external investors.
The single ticket income stopped falling and rebounded, and the performance improved quarter by quarter: after experiencing the low performance of 21q1, the company quickly adjusted its strategy, combined with the improvement of industrial policies, actively balanced its strategy, continuously improved product stratification, formulated targeted market strategies, optimized product structure and improved product pricing ability. The single ticket income of Q4 was 16.05 yuan, and the year-on-year decline continued to narrow. On a monthly basis, the single ticket income of the company in October, November, December and January of 22 years was 15.92 yuan, 15.82 yuan, 16.43 yuan and 17.47 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 6.9%, + 1.41%, + 0.43% and + 3.8%. The single ticket income stopped falling and rebounded. Secondly, 21q4 completed 2.798 billion business units, a year-on-year increase of 13.51%. With the slowdown of the industry growth, the company is still optimistic about the e-commerce parts market. Through the construction of Shunfeng + Fengwang dual brand, Shunfeng focuses on the fast electric trademark, high customer unit price and benchmarking medium and high-end groups; Fengwang is expected to increase the company’s market share in the low-end market with large benchmarking volume. In addition, on the cost side, the effect of lean cost control of the company has been shown. The integration of the four networks has steadily improved the operation efficiency, so that the net profit deducted in Q4 single quarter is 1.45-1.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42% – 56% and a month-on-month increase of 79% – 98%. The performance has been greatly improved.
Merging into Kerry Logistics is expected to open up the growth space of international business: 21q4 company merged with Kerry Logistics to contribute to its performance, and its supply chain and international business revenue (including Kerry Logistics consolidated statement) continued to rise. The revenue in October, November and December was 8.75 billion yuan, 9.6 billion yuan and 9.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 220%, 336% and 411%, and the overall revenue of Q4 reached 27.467 billion yuan. Kerry Logistics has strong international freight, comprehensive logistics strength and overseas resources. In particular, Southeast Asia has a relatively mature network, express delivery and supply chain layout. On the one hand, Kerry Logistics will help the company improve the loading rate of international routes and expand the layout of international aviation network. On the other hand, made in China will accelerate to sea, which will quickly enhance the company’s ability to expand overseas business.
Profit forecast: under strict policy supervision, the price war has eased, and the industry has changed from “price war” to “service war”. On the basis of the inherent advantages of the company’s direct operation mode, through the coordination of resources such as four networks financing, aviation, venue and transportation capacity, we continue to optimize the operation mode of various products, improve the utilization rate of production capacity and consolidate the existing competitive advantage. Ezhou airport is expected to be put into trial operation in the first half of 2022, which will provide strong growth power for timeliness, international business and supply chain. The bargaining power of the company’s products is increased, the cost is optimized, and the performance repair flexibility is large. It is estimated that in 2022 and 2023, the net profit will be 6.8 billion yuan and 8.8 billion yuan, yoy respectively + 60% and + 29%, and the EPS will be 1.39 yuan and 1.79 yuan. At present, the corresponding PE of a share price is 42 times and 32 times respectively. Investment suggestions for interval operation are given.
Risk tips: business growth slows down, price competition is fierce, new business development is less than expected, and the production of Ezhou airport is less than expected
