Core view
1. Five cycle theory: the industry is in the stage of weak cycle fluctuation, and the prosperity will continue
The trend of “volume parity increase” remains unchanged, and the dynamic differentiation of the industry intensifies. Different from the market, we first created the “five cycle theory” of liquor investment framework, which includes the expected indicators of equity incentive and so on. We analyzed from the perspective of economy / industry / product / entrepreneur / industry cycle, and thought: 1) the economy: under the steady growth, Baijiu Baijiu will continue to boom. 2) Industry: under the “one cycle ironing, two groups transformation, three attributes and five barriers” “At present, the demand side has strong stability and strong performance, and the industry boom cycle fluctuation will gradually weaken; 3) products: high-end wine can realize the continuous extension of the life cycle of large single products, but with the great change of the competitive environment in the 1000 yuan price belt, it has higher requirements for the marketing system; the regional wine wide product line strategy is conducive to undertaking echelon consumption upgrading; the main market is steadily expanding, and can it seize 600-80 The core volume price band of 0 yuan is the focus of national sub high-end wine whether it can break through 10 billion yuan; 4) Entrepreneur: in the era of weak cycle, the importance of decision-makers to enterprise development has become increasingly prominent, and the change of management / reform of salary mechanism / implementation of incentive policies are all catalytic. We believe that in the era of comprehensive competition, with the increasing number of observation points, the differentiation of Baijiu liquor industry will increase at various levels, and the evolution of competition will also accelerate.
2. Grasp the trend: will continue from β Investment switching to α The market trend continues
Different from the market, we believe that: 1) sauce wine is still the fastest-growing segment in terms of flavor types. Although the “channel fever” of sauce and wine has cooled down, the “consumption fever” continues, and the rising trend of volume and price remains unchanged. Downward sauce and wine will gradually penetrate the 100-200 price band, and upward sauce and wine will be the biggest beneficiary of the expansion of the 1000 yuan price band; 2) In terms of market development, deep cultivation of large capacity and strong open areas are the key points to seize more shares in nationalization; 3) In terms of plate style, with the continuation of prosperity, the structural rotation market trend continues. This year, the Baijiu plate has undergone several rounds of style switching. With the economic slowdown and marginal increase in capital, the Baijiu line has entered a weak cycle, and the plate will continue from the previous period. β Investment switching to α Type investment; 4) In terms of stock selection mode, it is necessary to “dynamically” select stocks. It is suggested to strictly select the targets with high profit elasticity, catalyst and cost-effective valuation, rather than focusing on high-end wine / regional wine / sub high-end wine. At the same time, it is necessary to establish a dynamic portfolio of all types of targets based on the perspective of dynamic “catalytic logic line”.
3. Investment suggestions: grasp the three “dynamic” investment main lines and grasp the logic of “catalyst main line”
In the short term: Based on the target planning of liquor enterprises, launch & volume price strategy adjustment & potential equity incentive Landing & Channel Spring Festival stock performance, etc., with intensive catalysis + 21q3 pre collection and storage + rigid spring festival demand, we are firmly optimistic about the Spring Festival stock market. It is expected that some liquor enterprises in 22q1 will welcome a high double-digit start. From top to bottom, we are firmly optimistic about the logic of both attack and Defense & catalyzing the high-end wine being gradually realized, with Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) being the first; From the bottom up, we first recommend 22 years of high elasticity & high certainty, which is expected to usher in Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and so on. In the medium and long term: 1. Grasp the investment opportunities benefiting from the trend, that is, select high-end wine labels “from top to bottom”, first Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) ; 2. Grasp the structural opportunity, that is, strictly select the & catalyst main line logic of high profit elasticity & non high-end wine labels with cost-effective valuation from the “bottom-up”, and recommend Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) from the perspective of stability elasticity; From the perspective of high elasticity, Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Laobaigan are recommended.
[risk tip] macroeconomic growth risk / repeated epidemic risk / policy risk / food safety risk.
