\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 24 Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) )
In 2021, the revenue of express report was + 57% year-on-year and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 68% year-on-year. The performance met our expectations. The company released the performance express of 2021, and achieved a revenue of 180.6 yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 57%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 68%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 2.957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 55%. 2021q4 achieved a revenue of 4.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 38%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 73%; Deduct 540 million yuan of non parent net profit, a year-on-year increase of + 11%. Revenue and non deduction profit are close to the upper limit of the forecast range, which is in line with our expectations and slightly higher than the market expectations. The higher absolute value of non recurring profit and loss in 2021q4 is due to the rapid growth of the fair value of overseas funds and the fair value of derivative financial instruments hedging against the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate.
General automation business: the growth rate of the industry is gradually stable, but Huichuan operates α Highlight, on the one hand, grasp the structural opportunities of advanced manufacturing sector, ”Top subsidence "To increase the sales share, on the other hand, under the background of upstream tension, import substitution continues to accelerate, and the industrial control business is expected to increase by more than 60% year-on-year in 21 years, and is expected to maintain a growth rate of more than 30% in 21 years; in the medium term, control products are expected to replace servo as the main growth pole, and in the long term, the company's new downstream such as layout energy storage, industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , industrial Internet, etc. lay a good foundation for the next round of growth. OE The demand of M Industry in 2021q4 is attributed to a moderate growth of 10-20%. The demand of OEM industry increased by 27.6% in 2021, of which the growth rates of Q1-Q4 were 53.4% / 28.1% / 21.2% / 11.5% respectively. We expect OEM to return to a moderate growth of 10-20% in 2022. The year-on-year growth rate of Huichuan industrial control sector in 2021 is expected to reach 60% + performance far exceeds that of the industry, and continues to reflect strong operation α。 From a medium and long-term perspective, the downstream structure of the company is optimized and high β Most of them are advanced manufacturing, and the superimposed product categories continue to expand. We expect that the CAGR of Huichuan industrial control business is expected to be close to 30% from 2022 to 2023.
In 2021, new power customers continued to increase in volume + new customer projects continued to increase in fixed points + ASP. The company's new energy vehicle business significantly reduced losses this year and is expected to make a profit in 2022. The new energy vehicle business revenue in 2021q3 is 870 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 189%. 2021q4 is expected to continue the high growth month on month and continue to verify the high growth. Among them, new forces such as ideal one and Xiaopeng P7 continue to increase in volume. According to the data of the passenger Association, the company's sales volume reached 90500 / 60600 respectively in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 177% / + 295%. The revenue of Xinneng vehicle business is expected to reach 2.5-3 billion yuan in 2021, the sales share and single vehicle value will continue to increase in the future, the profit side will significantly reduce losses this year, and it is expected to start making profits in 2022.
Elevator: maintain steady growth. We estimate that the elevator business will grow by 15-20% in 2021. From 2022 to 2023, it is expected to maintain a stable CAGR of 10% + with the help of large supporting comprehensive solutions + elevator going to sea + post service market.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: as the overall performance of the company's express exceeds market expectations, we slightly increase the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202123 to 3.53 billion yuan (+ 80 million yuan) / 4.39 billion yuan (+ 0 billion yuan) / 5.69 billion yuan (+ 0 billion yuan) (considering the amortization of equity incentive expenses), 68% / + 24% / + 30% year-on-year (net profit deducted from non parent company is 2.96 billion yuan / 4.09 billion yuan / 5.34 billion yuan respectively, year-on-year + 55% / + 38% / + 31%), corresponding to 47 times, 37 times and 29 times of current price PE respectively. Considering the strong operation of the company in the industrial control industry α、 As well as the leading position of domestic investment in motor electric control, the target price is given as 83.5 yuan, corresponding to 50 times PE in 2022, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: macroeconomic downturn, downstream demand does not meet expectations, new energy vehicle customer expansion is less than expected, competition intensifies, etc.
