\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 18 Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) )
Deep ploughing battery components, profitability ushered in repair
The company deeply cultivates battery components, and its shipment volume ranks seventh in the world and fifth in China. Due to the sharp rise in the price of main and auxiliary materials, the performance of the company decreased significantly in 2020 and 2021. In 2021, the company sold the equity and assets of Swick and power station company, focusing on the main business of battery components. In 2022, the new production capacity of silicon, photovoltaic glass and other main and auxiliary materials will be released, the price will fall, and the profitability of the company will be repaired.
The photovoltaic industry has broad prospects, and the new installed capacity in the 14th five year plan will increase significantly
With the development trend of carbon neutralization policy and affordable Internet access in major economies around the world, the photovoltaic industry has ushered in a new growth stage. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts that the global photovoltaic new installed capacity will reach 1050 ~ 1295gw from 2021 to 2025, and the new installed capacity in China will reach 355 ~ 440gw from 2021 to 2025. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the global installed capacity will increase by 100.76% ~ 147.61% compared with the 13th Five Year Plan period, driving the continuous growth of the demand for photovoltaic silicon wafers and modules, and the market share of leading manufacturers is expected to be further improved.
Actively expand the advanced production capacity at home and abroad and take the lead in the layout of hjt high-efficiency battery module production line
At present, the company has a battery production capacity of 12gw, a component production capacity of 19gw, and a battery self-sufficiency rate of 63%. The company actively promotes the construction of 3gw battery modules in Malaysia and 5GW battery modules in Yiwu phase II, and the new production capacity will be ramped up in 2022. The company has deep technical reserves in the field of high-efficiency photovoltaic cells and modules, and will increase the capacity construction of code heterojunction cells and modules in 2022.
Profit forecast and investment rating
We estimate that the company's operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 193.472773338.998 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 20.44% / 43.35% / 40.62%, net profit of -0.40/790839 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -124.45% / 205416% / 6.16%, EPS of -0.04/0.88/0.93 yuan / share respectively, and corresponding PE of - 635x / 33x / 31x respectively. The company is the seventh largest component supplier in the world. Referring to the PE average of comparable companies, the company is valued at 38 times in 2022, with the corresponding share price of 33.44 yuan. It is covered for the first time and is rated "buy".
Risk tips
The new installed capacity of global PV is less than expected; The price war of component manufacturers affects the gross profit and profit of the company's components; The soaring prices of raw materials and auxiliary materials will reduce the company's profits; The operating rate of the company's new capacity is lower than expected;
