Macro: overall consumption continued to improve weakly. At the end of 2021, the consumption of social zero continued to recover weakly: in December 2021, the total consumption of social zero increased by + 1.7% year-on-year; + 6.4% compared with November 2019; Among them, the catering revenue was – 2.2% year-on-year, up from + 0.3% in November 2019. At the end of 2021, consumer confidence was in the bottom repeated stage: in December 2021, the consumer confidence index was 119.5, a slight increase of 0.3 month on month, but it was still at a historically low level. In January 2022, CPI rose slightly year-on-year and month on month: affected by seasonal factors, rising costs and epidemic outbreaks, CPI rose by 0.4% month on month and 0.9% year-on-year in January 2022.
Baijiu: short-term storage of long-term efforts, structural upgrading trend unchanged. Around the Spring Festival, the epidemic control and control were relatively relaxed compared with 2021, and the terminal consumption scenarios were restored. The liquor industry’s overall sales performance was stable and the channel refunds were good, but the regional differentiation characteristics (mainly caused by the epidemic in some areas) were repeated, and the performance of the Baijiu liquor was relatively better. From 2 to March, the Baijiu industry will enter the “shrinkage stage”. But the good performance of the Spring Festival has laid a good foundation for the first quarter. We think that Baijiu 22Q1 can start a good start.
Beer: high end + realization of price increase effect, focusing on systematic opportunities in peak season. On the whole, the logic of high-end industry continues to be deduced. It is expected that with the recovery of catering demand and the decline of raw material prices (the high glass price fell in January), the price increase effect of the industry is expected to be realized in the peak season of 21q2, and the report performance will release high elasticity.
Catering supply chain: 22q1 recovers steadily, and 22q2 is expected to usher in an inflection point. The demand of the industry continues to warm up at the bottom before and after the Spring Festival. We expect that the seasoning channel is expected to achieve a high double-digit growth before the Spring Festival, but the growth rate of 22Q1 listed companies is relatively stable. Looking forward to the future, the industry ushered in a fundamental inflection point after the second quarter.
Dairy products: the competition pattern is slowing down + the high milk price is falling down, and the profitability continues to improve. In January, the demand for white milk continued to be strong, and the top two companies reduced their promotion efforts. Superimposed on the high decline of raw milk prices in January (the year-on-year growth slowed to 0%), it is expected that the milk price in 2022 is expected to continue the downward trend, the gross sales difference of the industry is expected to be further improved, and more performance elasticity will be released.
Investment suggestion: Baijiu sector, from the angle of brand competitive value, suggests paying attention to Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) . For the popular products sector, it is suggested to pay attention to Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , which benefited from the decline of raw milk price and the expansion of gross sales difference, and Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) , Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) , which benefited from the recovery of demand and had strong transmission ability of price increase.
Risk warning: the impact scope of the epidemic exceeded expectations; The recovery of terminal demand is less than expected; The increase of cost price is higher than expected; Food safety issues.
