Core view
Logistics: China Post Group disclosed its deployment for the development of mail and delivery business in 2022. In 2021, the express revenue was + 21.1% year-on-year, and the business volume was + 39.8% year-on-year, both reaching a five-year high; In January 2022, it achieved a “good start”, with the revenue of express business + 46.6%, fast package business + 12.3% and logistics business + 19.9% year-on-year. The price of Tongda is strong, and the policy inflection point helps the industry to rise moderately. We are optimistic about the continuous recovery of Tongda’s leading companies in 2022.
Shipping port: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has a boosting impact on the shipping sector, focusing on the oil transportation sector. In view of the high dependence of Europe on Russian energy, at present, about 2.3 million barrels / day of Russian crude oil flows westward to the export terminals of the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea through the pipeline network. The deterioration of the conflict will increase the introduction of oil from non Russian regions in Europe and increase the transportation cost.
Railway and highway: affected by the epidemic, the tourist flow in China during the Spring Festival holiday has decreased compared with previous years. During the 40 day spring festival transportation, the traffic volume of national highways increased by about 2% year-on-year. Among them, 15 days before the Spring Festival (January 17-31) is the trip, and the traffic volume of national highways increased by about 10% year-on-year. In the context of steady growth and rising market risk aversion, we recommend the allocation opportunities of undervalued high dividend sectors.
Airports: the situation in Russia and Ukraine has a limited impact on the civil aviation industry. It is optimistic about the demand for repair of the airport sector in 2022. In the short term, foreign geopolitical conflicts have exacerbated the fluctuation of oil, natural gas and other bulk commodities, and the rise of costs may have a certain impact on the performance of airlines. However, the collection of fuel surcharge has shifted the pressure of some costs to a certain extent. On the whole, in 2022, the aviation sector is facing a pattern of demand restoration and tight supply. Superimposed on the expectation of opening international lines, we believe that civil aviation passenger transport is expected to return to 80% ~ 90% before the epidemic, and continue to be optimistic about the leaders of the three major airlines and private low-cost airlines.
Industry hot spots this week
Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) announced the signing of a contract with China Post Express Logistics. According to the agreement, the two sides complement each other in the field of air transport resources and reduce international transportation costs. Specific cooperation includes jointly promoting the construction of global hubs, global backbone networks and ports, and establishing global international transportation networks such as aviation and international railways. Strengthen the sharing of overseas customs clearance resources and improve the processing capacity of key links.
On February 25, the Civil Aviation Administration of China held a press conference. Sun Wensheng, deputy director of the comprehensive Department of the Civil Aviation Administration, introduced that this year’s Spring Festival transportation began on January 17 and ended on February 25. During the 40 day spring festival transportation, civil aviation transported 39.82 million passengers and 996000 passengers per day, an increase of 12.5% over the same period in 2021, an increase of 3.8% over 2020 and a decrease of 45.3% over 2019. In terms of flight arrangement, civil aviation actually flew 464000 flights, with a daily average of 11600, an increase of 30.3% year-on-year in 2021, an increase of 2.4% over 2020 and a decrease of 13.1% over 2019. The average occupancy rate is 64.23%, basically the same as that in 2021; The average normal flight rate was 95.94%, an increase of 2.26 percentage points year-on-year in 2021.
Performance this week
This week: this week (2022.2.212022.2.25), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 week increases were – 1.13% and – 1.67% respectively, and the transportation index was: – 2.22%; In terms of various sub sectors of transportation, port – 0.73%, public transportation 2.06%, air transportation – 0.08%, airport 1.55%, expressway 1.21%, shipping 5.88%, railway transportation 2.22% and logistics 0.09%. There are many sub sectors of transportation rising this week, among which railway transportation and shipping rose the most, with only three sub sectors of railway, highway, port and air transportation falling.
Head stock gains
The top five stocks in the delivery this week were Huaihe Energy (Group) Co.Ltd(600575) ( Huaihe Energy (Group) Co.Ltd(600575) . SH) 46.74%, Jiangxi Changyun Co.Ltd(600561) ( Jiangxi Changyun Co.Ltd(600561) . SH) 21.29%, Deppon Logistics Co.Ltd(603056) ( Deppon Logistics Co.Ltd(603056) . SH) 16.25%, Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) ( Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) . SZ) 13.55%, Jinzhou Port Co.Ltd(600190) ( Jinzhou Port Co.Ltd(600190) . SH) 10.10%.
Risk tips
The epidemic situation occurred repeatedly, and the economic growth rate was lower than expected; Risk of sharp rise in oil prices; The development of e-commerce and online shopping demand slowed down more than expected, the construction progress of express network was less than expected, and the competition pattern deteriorated.
