Event: on December 9, the central bank released social finance and financial data for November. At the end of November, the stock scale of social finance was 311.9 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% (a month on month increase of 0.1pct); in November, social finance increased by 2.61 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 478.6 billion. At the end of November, M2 increased by 8.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.2pct; M1 increased by 3% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 0.2pct.
comment:
In November, social finance continued to pick up, mainly driven by corporate bonds and local government bonds. At the end of November, the stock of social finance increased by 10.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate continued to pick up, which was in line with our expectations. In November, social finance increased by 2.61 trillion, an increase of 478.6 billion year-on-year; Mainly due to the year-on-year increase in corporate bonds and government bonds. In November, government bonds were issued rapidly, with an increase of 815.8 billion in the month, an increase of 415.8 billion year-on-year; Corporate bonds increased by 410.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 324.2 billion. In addition, RMB loans increased by 1.3 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 230.9 billion, slightly lower than expected; Or related to the slow recovery of the spontaneous contraction of the credit market in the real estate field. Off balance sheet financing continued to decline (entrusted loans + 3.5 billion, trust loans - 219 billion, undiscounted silver notes - 24.2 billion), a total decrease of 239.7 billion in the current month. Stock financing increased by 129.4 billion, an increase of 52.3 billion year-on-year. It is expected that the large issuance of local government bonds in the fourth quarter will boost the financing demand for relevant infrastructure, and the subsequent social financing growth is expected to stabilize and recover.
The increment of medium and long-term loans of enterprises decreased, and residential mortgage loans continued to pick up. In November, RMB loans increased by 1.27 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 160.5 billion. Among them, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises and residents account for 73% of the new loans, and the new credit structure is better. From the perspective of incremental scale, the increment of medium and long-term loans of enterprises decreased. In November, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased by 341.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 247 billion. one side, It is expected to be affected by the squeeze of medium and long-term loans from residents (the marginal loosening of mortgage credit policy); on the other hand, it may be related to the decline of bond interest rate and the crowding out of credit demand by corporate bond financing demand. From the cumulative point of view of the whole year, the amount of medium and long-term loans to the public is not weak (from January to November, the medium - and long-term loans of enterprises increased by 88900, an increase of 640.7 billion over the same period last year). Considering that the large issuance of local bonds in the fourth quarter will bring supporting financing needs for infrastructure projects, the medium - and long-term credit needs of subsequent enterprises will be supported to a certain extent. In terms of residential loans, the new residential loans in November increased by 733.7 billion, a decrease of 19.7 billion over the same period last year. Among them, the medium - and long-term residential loans increased by 582.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 77 , a month on month increase of 160 billion, reflecting the continued recovery of mortgage loan supply. The growth of follow-up mortgage loans needs to pay attention to the demand side of residents; Considering the slow recovery of real estate sales, the growth of mortgage loans is expected to remain basically stable in the future.
M1 growth picked up month on month, reflecting the marginal relief of cash flow pressure of real estate enterprises. At the end of November, M2 increased by 8.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.2pct month on month; M1 increased by 3% year-on-year and the growth rate increased by 0.2pct month on month. M1 growth picked up month on month, reflecting the recent improvement in the financing environment of real estate enterprises and the marginal relief of cash flow pressure. In terms of deposits, deposits increased by 1.14 trillion in November, a year-on-year decrease of 961.2 billion. Among them, resident deposits increased by 730.8 billion, an increase of 97.4 billion year-on-year; Corporate deposits increased by 945.1 billion, an increase of 96.8 billion year-on-year. Fiscal deposits decreased by 728.1 billion in the current month, an increase of 542.4 billion year-on-year, which is expected to be related to the accelerated commencement and implementation of infrastructure projects and the strength of local fiscal expenditure. Deposits from non bank institutions decreased by 25.7 billion, an increase of 877.3 billion over the same period last year.
Investment suggestion: the growth rate of social finance continued to pick up in November, which was in line with expectations. It is expected that the large issuance of local government bonds in the fourth quarter will boost the financing needs of relevant infrastructure and support the medium and long-term credit needs of follow-up enterprises; With the marginal loosening of the mortgage loan policy, the collection pressure of some real estate enterprises is expected to be relieved.
It is expected that the scale of bank credit will grow steadily next year under the tone of stable currency and wide credit policy The net interest margin has stabilized (optimizing the asset structure, reforming the deposit pricing mechanism and gradually releasing dividends), and the asset quality is good (the burden of non-performing stock is light, the provision is sufficient, and the risk in the real estate field is controllable), which will support the stability of the bank fundamentals. At present, the positions of banking stock institutions and sector valuation are at a historically low level, which has the power and space to repair. In terms of individual stocks, they are optimistic about small and medium-sized banks with regional advantages ( Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) ) and retail banks ( Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) ) ）。
Risk tip: economic stall and downturn lead to deterioration of asset quality; Unexpected changes in regulatory policies, etc.
