Core view: the current economic environment is still in the stage of wide currency to wide credit transmission. From the historical market review, in addition to the bull market brought about by the split share structure reform in November 2006, there are several securities companies: RMB 4 trillion at the end of 2008, comprehensive interest rate and standard reduction under the “three-phase superposition” correction of the “money shortage” in the second half of 2014, financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises, credit expansion at the end of 2018 After the social finance exceeded expectations in April 2020, the “rumors of mixed banking and securities industry” led to the fermentation of the market, which were all the products of the effective economic stimulus. Despite the current changes in the positioning of real estate in stabilizing the economy, the “flood irrigation” before 2018 is also different from the “precision drip irrigation” in China’s economic transformation process. The current time point comparison is stronger than the steady growth in the early stage of the epidemic in 2020 and weaker than the overall loose liquidity in 2014. We still recommend the brokerage sector on the left. This week, we released the latest in-depth report to demonstrate in detail the reference of the development of American mutual funds to the development of China’s public funds. Under the circumstances of China’s economic restructuring, the asset side of the increase in the proportion of direct financing and the capital side of pension entering the market, securities companies holding equity in public funds are expected to enjoy the increase of market value as “shadow shares”! Life insurance premiums are difficult to perform in the case of high base last year and no significant improvement in agent quality improvement. However, property insurance has an upward inflection point in the premium one and a half years after the start of vehicle insurance premium reform, and the head company is expected to usher in performance improvement by controlling the comprehensive cost rate. It is suggested to pay attention to: CITIC, Dongcai, Guangfa, great wall, Zheshang, China property insurance, CPIC, etc.
Market review: the main indexes rose and fell this week, and the Shanghai composite index reported 345141 points, – 1.13%; Shenzhen stock index reported 1341292 points, -0.35%; CSI 300 index reported 457342, – 1.67%; Gem 285580, + 1.30%; The China Securities composite bond (net price) index was reported at 99.93, – 17bp. The average daily turnover of A-Shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 1060208 billion yuan, a month on month increase of + 25.82%, and the average daily turnover rate was 1.43%, a month on month increase of + 27.71bp; The balance of the two financial institutions was 1727121 billion yuan, down – 3.82% from last week. As of February 25, 2022, the scale of equity + hybrid funds was 8.65 trillion yuan, a month on month increase of + 0.23%, and the scale of newly issued equity funds this week was 2.007 billion yuan, a month on month increase of – 1.28%. In terms of individual stocks, securities companies: Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) -0.81%, Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) -1.03%, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) -1.11%; Insurance: The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) -3.12%, New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) -3.89%, China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) -5.00%; Diversified Finance: Anhui Xinli Finance Co.Ltd(600318) + 27.24%, Xiangyi Finance + 19.30%, Minsheng Holdings Co.Ltd(000416) + 12.27%.
Views of the securities industry: on February 25, the CSRC publicly solicited opinions on the guidance on improving the supervision of listed companies after delisting. Specifically, first, strengthen the connection of delisting procedures, improve the undertaking arrangements of host securities companies, optimize the listing process of delisting sector, and promote delisting companies to enter the delisting sector smoothly; Second, optimize the continuous supervision system of delisting companies, reasonably set the requirements for information disclosure and corporate governance, and establish a differentiated supervision mechanism, so as to further improve the accuracy and adaptability of supervision; Third, strengthen the management of investors’ appropriateness and guide enterprises that do not have the ability to operate to withdraw from the market through market-oriented channels, so that the risks will be further cleared; Fourth, improve the regulatory system of delisting companies, build a regulatory mechanism with clear responsibilities, coordination and efficiency, and form an effective regulatory force. Improving the exit mechanism of listed companies plays a key role in optimizing the allocation of resources and improving the quality of listed companies. Improving the regulatory system, enriching and improving delisting indicators and simplifying the delisting process of “problem” companies will help accelerate the survival of the fittest in the capital market and improve the overall quality of listed companies. The tail companies that have lost sustainable profitability are cleared out of the market, which is conducive to improving the “water flow” vitality of the capital market, introducing medium and long-term funds and boosting the overall valuation level of a shares.
In 2021, the performance grew steadily, the asset quality improved, and the valuation did not match the performance and asset quality. From the performance of 18 listed securities companies that have disclosed the performance express, more than 70% of the securities companies’ return to parent net profit increased by more than 20%, and half of them exceeded 30%. Among them, China stock market news is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the mother of a net profit of 4.8225 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year growth of 66.90 percent expected in 2021, among which China stock market news is expected to achieve a net profit of 4.8225 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 66.90% year-on-year growth of 66.90 percent year-on-year growth of 66.90%, among which China stock market news is expected to top among the top among the top among the top among the top among China’stock market market news, among which the growth of China stock market ”s stock market news news, among the top among the top among the country’s stock market news news, among which the growth in the growth of China’s stock market market”s top among the top among the top among the top among the top among the top growth in terms in terms in terms in terms of the growth in terms of the growth in terms of the net profit growth of China ” ”net profits from the year to return to return to 7% year-on-year growth Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) net profit increased by more than 50%. In addition, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) , Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) and other four securities companies had net profit of more than 30%. In 2021, the performance of securities business grew steadily under the high base of 2020. It is expected that the net profit growth of most listed securities companies will exceed 30%, laying a solid foundation for the rise of the sector. The current valuation of securities companies is PB1 57 times, the valuation still does not match the performance and asset quality, which is 2.5 times away from PB2 There is still much room for 61x valuation center.
Under the background of the comprehensive registration system and the great development of wealth management, securities companies with excellent investment banking ability and prominent wealth management business are expected to obtain value revaluation opportunities. The head securities companies have advantages in talent reserve, research ability, asset pricing ability and sales ability. The market share of the registration system is concentrated in the head. Up to now, the number of registered IPOs Cr5 is 38.08%, the underwriting scale Cr5 is 56.25%, and the underwriting sponsor income Cr5 is 48.94%, which is respectively higher than 29% / 49% / 36% of the number, scale and income Cr5 of all A-share IPOs. The comprehensive registration system will bring performance increment to the head securities companies with stronger comprehensive strength. It is suggested to pay attention to: Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) , etc. In the context of the great development of wealth management, the wealth management line suggests paying attention to the core targets benefiting from the expansion of the wealth management market: 1 China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , which has obvious advantages in products and investment advisers and promotes the large-scale development of high-end wealth management; 2. Benefiting from the wealth of residents entering the market through institutions, excellent products and investment advisory services + high proportion of asset management income + Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , etc. with high contribution of participating / holding public funds; 3. The company attaches great importance to its strategy and has obvious characteristics of private placement and consignment sales, which is expected to achieve Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) .
Insurance industry perspective: on February 21, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the notice on expanding the pilot scope of exclusive commercial endowment insurance, expanding the pilot area of exclusive commercial endowment insurance from Zhejiang (including Ningbo) and Chongqing to the whole country. At the same time, on the basis of the original six pilot insurance companies, endowment insurance companies are allowed to participate in the pilot.
The pilot operated smoothly. By the end of January 2022, the six pilot companies had underwritten nearly 50000 insurance policies with a total premium of 400 million yuan, including nearly 10000 employees of Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) , such as couriers, online car Hailing drivers and new business formats. The expansion of the pilot scope can benefit a wider range of consumers with products with strong pension functions. At the same time, it also promotes the pilot companies to explore the development of commercial pension insurance and promote the development of the third pillar pension insurance.
Subject to the impact that the life insurance reform is still in a painful period, the increase of team capacity is less than the decline of manpower, and the continuous mismatch between supply and demand, the inflection point at the liability end is still difficult to appear in the short term. At present, the repair of insurance valuation still depends on the performance of the asset side. Policy regulation focuses on stability, and the orientation of active fiscal policy and broad monetary policy is clear. It is expected to underpin economic growth. Wide credit superimposes the expectation of US interest rate hike, and the long-term interest rate may usher in an inflection point, driving the valuation repair of insurance stocks. With the growth rate of social finance reaching a new high in January and the steady growth driving the economy to continue to improve, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has rebounded slightly to 2.78% (as of February 25), which may continue to rise in the future. In addition, the adverse impact of real estate investment on insurance companies has been fully reflected, the resolution of real estate chain risk has been gradually promoted, and real estate financing has been continuously relaxed, so the real estate risk is controllable. In terms of equity, insurance stocks tend to underestimate the value of individual stocks with high dividends, which is in line with the style of this year’s equity market and is expected to achieve better investment returns. At present, the positions and valuations of insurance stock institutions are at historical lows. The current share prices of Guoshou, Ping An, Taibao and Xinhua 2022epev are 0.61x, 0.57x, 0.46x and 0.41x respectively. It is suggested to pay attention to AIA led by high-quality agents, as well as Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) and China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , which are more thoroughly reformed in life insurance.
Liquidity view: in terms of volume, the central bank invested 760 billion yuan in the open market this week, including 810 billion yuan in reverse repurchase and 50 billion yuan in return. 810 billion yuan of reverse repo will expire next week. In terms of price, the short-term capital interest rate rose this week. The weighted average inter-bank offered rate rose 10bp to 2.29%, and the inter-bank pledged repo rate rose 15bp to 2.31%. R001 goes up 10bp to 2.26%, R007 goes up 38bp to 2.53%, and dr007 goes up 25bp to 2.34%. Shibor’s overnight interest rate rose 12bp to 2.23%. The issuing interest rate of interbank certificates of deposit rose. The yield of one-year treasury bonds rose by 9bp to 2.06%, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds fell by 1bp to 2.79%, and the term spread narrowed by 10bp to 0.73%. In terms of policy, steady growth continued to exert force, superimposed with the intensification of global inflation caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, followed by the focus on credit easing and the drag on the bottom of long-term interest rates caused by the opening of the tightening cycle in the United States.
Diversified financial perspective: focus on the trust and financial holding sectors that benefit from stimulating economic policies.
Risk factors: the deterioration of covid-19 epidemic, the decline of China’s economy beyond expectations, the decline of long-term interest rate beyond expectations, the success of the start is less than expected, the tightening of financial regulatory policies, the risk of spread loss caused by low interest rate, the pressure of agent shedding, lower than expected insurance sales, the uncertainty of the impact of capital market fluctuations on performance, etc.
