Observation of community group buying in November: the platform turned to high-quality growth, and the performance of consumer categories was differentiated

Platform: community group buying grew steadily as a whole, and the trend of de flow is obvious. In November, the overall Gmv of the community group buying platform was + 6% month on month. The share of buying more vegetables and meituan preferred continued to lead, and the number of vegetables in the second echelon increased rapidly. In November, the State Administration of market supervision gave a reply on the proposal to regulate community group buying. Antitrust supervision was further tightened, and the head platform clearly turned to high-quality growth. In the future, competition will test the ability of the supply chain more.

Consumer goods: the overall discount rate dropped to 70%, and the demand for hoarding goods was released. Edible oil, dairy products, rest food, soft drinks and condiments are still the top categories in the standard products. In November, the growth rate of rice flour, grain and oil, convenience food, condiments and household paper ranked the top, or the demand related to the double 11 activities and planned storage was released. In terms of discount rate, the overall discount rate is about 30% (month on month -4pct). Among the main categories, edible oil, wine and dairy products continue to be low. The discount rates of quick-frozen food, rest food, Jiaqing and paper products rise compared with October (the higher the ranking, the higher the discount rate).

Specific categories: the pattern of dairy products in the safety zone is stable, the cost of edible oil is rising, and the transmission difficulty is not high. In the short term, the categories in the challenge zone have the risk of declining share and increasing management difficulty after the price increase of the brand. The risk area is strong, and the category competition with early taste and hoarding attributes is still strongly related to the price. 1) For dairy products, the pattern of the top two is stable, the discount rate began to decline continuously in July, the price of basic white milk has been more stable since Q3, and the profit space is expected to open under the trend of flat raw milk price; 2) For edible oil, the average price of large single products accelerated upward in November, and it is expected that the transmission of category cost pressure to the terminal is not very difficult; 3) Soft drink & popular wine, the price increase of beer in the off-season began to be reflected in October, and the discount rate was further narrowed to 10% in November; 4) For condiments, the category discount rate remained down in November. In the short term, the share of head brands declined after the price increase. Small brands accounted for about 40%. The half year survival rate of small brands on the sample platform slowly decreased to about 50%. It is expected that the probability of affecting the long-term pattern of categories is not high; 5) For leisure food, the category discount rate decreased to 70% in November, and the discount rate of well-known brands with the highest share continued to be higher than the overall category; 6) Family cleaning, the decline of discount rate is lower than that of the overall platform, the competition returns to well-known brands, and the community channel has become the force channel for some cost-effective domestic brands; 7) For household paper, the decline of discount rate is significantly lower than that of the overall platform. It is speculated that it is related to the slowing down of cost pressure and strong hoarding attribute. The well-known brands with the highest share have rebounded in discount rate since the third quarter.

 

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