Industry core view:
Recently, the intensification of disputes between Ukraine and Russia triggered concerns about the energy crisis in the market, and the crude oil price fluctuated higher. At the same time, many western countries have announced that they will take sanctions against Russia. The current international geopolitical situation will affect the trend of bulk commodities in the chemical industry. In this regard, we made a brief analysis.
Key investment points:
The tension between international crude oil supply and demand continues, the dispute between Ukraine and Russia intensifies, and the diversion and distribution of oil breaks the "100 yuan mark": at present, the global crude oil continues to be in a state of tight supply and demand and destocking. At the same time, due to the combination of factors such as lower than expected OPEC + production increase and international geopolitical tension, the international crude oil price rises all the way. As the world's second largest oil and gas producer, Russia's conflict with Ukraine exacerbated the market's concern about the interruption of supply of energy products. Under the panic, the price of crude oil once exceeded the 100 yuan mark. It is expected that the international crude oil price will continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and the high price support is strong, which is expected to drive the price rise of other energy products and downstream olefins, aromatic hydrocarbons and other petrochemical products. It is suggested to pay attention to leading enterprises in oil sales, storage, oil exploitation and other related sectors.
Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices continue to rise, and the performance of agrochemical sector is worth looking forward to: at present, crop prices have been at a high level in the past five years. Russia and Ukraine are major producers of wheat, barley and corn in the world. The conflict between the two countries has triggered the prices of these crops to rise again. High crop prices may strongly promote the enthusiasm of farming. China's No. 1 central document in 2022 set a clear red line for grain production, which has basically guaranteed the demand for upstream pesticides and fertilizers. In the peak season of spring farming, under the favorable demand side, the price of pesticides and fertilizers is still expected to rise. In addition, China and Russia are both major producers of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizers in the world. If Russia's fertilizer export is sanctioned, it may benefit China's fertilizer foreign trade business. Therefore, we continue to be optimistic about the performance of potash fertilizer and other agrochemical sectors in 2022, and we suggest paying attention to relevant leading enterprises.
There is a risk of reducing the supply of rare gases or affecting global semiconductor production: Ukraine supplies a large number of inert gases such as neon, krypton and xenon for semiconductor production to the world. Under the Ukrainian Russian conflict, if the production of relevant inert gas in Ukraine is blocked, it may lead to the tightening of global inert gas supply. Due to the small scale of these inert gas markets, their price elasticity is greater, and it is likely to affect the normal production and supply of the semiconductor industry. China has made technological breakthroughs in inert gas purification, and the inert gas produced by some enterprises is enough for advanced semiconductor processes. Under the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, China's inert gas export demand is expected to increase accordingly.
Risk factors: crude oil inventory and capacity release are less than expected; The risk of large fluctuations in commodity prices; Risk of continued deterioration of geopolitical situation.
