Main points:
Stock: the stock of social finance increased by 10.1% year-on-year, and the growth of RMB loans increased by 11.7%.
At the end of November, the stock of social financing scale was 311.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% (the former value was 10%), including RMB loans (11.8%, the former value was 12%), undiscounted bills (15.3%, the former value was – 15.8%), trust loans (29.3%, the former value was – 27.5%) and government bonds (14.4%, the former value was 13.6%).
Increment: RMB loans increased by 1.27 trillion yuan.
In November 2021, RMB loans increased by 1.27 trillion yuan.
Among them, household loans increased by 733.7 billion yuan, a month on month increase of 269 billion yuan and a year-on-year decrease of 19.7 billion yuan. Among them, the increment of short-term household loans was 151.7 billion yuan, an increase of 109.1 billion yuan month on month and a decrease of 96.9 billion yuan year-on-year. The increment of medium and long-term household loans was 582.1 billion yuan, an increase of 160 billion yuan month on month and 77.2 billion yuan year-on-year.
Corporate loans increased by 567.9 billion yuan, a month on month increase of 257.8 billion yuan and a year-on-year decrease of 213.3 billion yuan. Among them, short-term corporate loans increased by 41 billion yuan, an increase of 69.8 billion yuan month on month and a decrease of 32.4 billion yuan year-on-year. The increment of medium and long-term corporate loans was 341.7 billion yuan, an increase of 122.7 billion yuan month on month and 247 billion yuan less year on year. Bill financing increased by 160.5 billion yuan, a month on month increase of 44.5 billion yuan and a year-on-year increase of 80.1 billion yuan.
Loans from non bank financial institutions decreased by 36.4 billion yuan, 94.7 billion yuan month on month and 67.8 billion yuan year-on-year.
Currency: M1 rebounded and M2 fell.
At the end of November, the balance of M2 was 235.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month and 2.2 percentage points lower than that in the same period of last year; M1 balance was 63.75 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%, 0.2 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and 7 percentage points lower than that in the same period of last year.
The stabilization of social finance is conducive to bank valuation.
Stabilizing the growth rate of social finance is conducive to improving bank valuation. Although from the perspective of medium and long-term loans, the long-term financing demand of enterprises is still weak, the increment of medium and long-term loans of residents on the edge has increased year-on-year, which shows the policy will to meet the normal housing demand of residents and promote the sound development of the real estate industry. The Politburo meeting of “actively expanding effective investment” and “promoting the healthy development and virtuous cycle of real estate” will alleviate the market’s fear of bank profit decline and bad. When credit grows at a high speed, the bad rate decreases. Recently, China Merchants Bank and ICBC successively announced that they plan to issue bonds to supplement capital, which also shows that banks are preparing for credit relief next year.
Investment advice
For banking stocks, we recommend paying attention to banks with strong retail business and small and micro loan business: recommend China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) and Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) .
Risk statement
Macroeconomic contraction exceeded expectations.
