Key investment points
Home furnishing: 315 marketing package comes out, focusing on supporting, and the strong will always be strong
This round of 315 package pays more attention to supporting products, one-stop solution + customer single value. 315 home promotion season is approaching, and leading brands have launched new packages to lock customers in advance. This round of package emphasizes more abundant household appliances and software accessories, from selling single products in the past to selling space now; More cooperation brands, higher cost performance of packages, and higher voice of leading brands in the supply chain.
Optimistic about the leading package, store customers in advance and pave the way for the growth of annual performance. Based on the leading advantages in information construction, supply chain integration and warehouse service management, the leading companies of big home represented by Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (21x), Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (23.1x), Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (14.6x) can increase their share by providing consumers with cost-effective "big home meals". The strong will remain strong and maintain their recommendation.
Papermaking: pulp paper intensively issued price increase letters, and the cost promoted the rise and landing of paper price
Pulp paper intensively released the price increase letter in March, and the price increase is expected to be implemented smoothly under the support of cost. Focus on pattern deduction, and select Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) and Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) . (1) Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) : the company released a performance express this week. It is expected to achieve a revenue of 31.874 billion yuan (+ 47.64%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.941 billion yuan (+ 50.56%) in 2021. In addition, Nanning Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, plans to acquire 100% equity of Liujing Chengquan held by hongruitai paper for RMB 1.5 billion to speed up the layout of Nanning project of Guangxi base. 21q4 the rise in energy costs combined with the use of high priced pulp has put pressure on the company's profit per ton. Consider the recent rise in the price of cultural paper; Under the advantage of scale, the profit performance of the company is better than that of its peers, and it is expected that the profit of 22q1 is expected to bottom and rebound. Guangxi phase II project is progressing smoothly, and we look forward to the double improvement of the company's scale and efficiency in 22 years. The dark time has come, and the value on the left is prominent. The PE of 22 years is 10.4x, which is continuously recommended. (2) Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) : 21q4 cost squeeze and profit loss. At present, the energy cost has fallen and the price increase is expected to fall, and now it has entered the repair range; The company has entered the high-speed expansion period of setting production by sales, continued to enrich the product matrix, was optimistic about the continuous improvement of market share, and had outstanding growth in the medium term. The PE in 22 years was 16.6x, which was continuously recommended.
Required: Smokeless trend, stationery focus on Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) retail reform
E-cigarette: the European Parliament recognizes the harm reduction attribute of new tobacco and the general trend of smokelessness. Smore international is recommended on the left. On February 16, the European Parliament adopted a report on cancer prevention and treatment, which recognized the potential contribution of new tobacco to smoking cessation and is expected to continue to accelerate the global smokeless process. In addition, judging from the performance of the overseas tobacco empire in the past 21 years, the trend of new-type tobacco remains unchanged. We suggest that smore international, the core target of the industrial chain, be arranged on the left (the Chinese business is expected to improve month on month, the growth momentum of overseas business in the past 22 years is abundant, the short-term fundamentals are stable and the long-term growth attribute is prominent), and we suggest to pay attention to the Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) and other targets of new-type tobacco of China tobacco.
Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) : release the performance express for 21 years. The layout of new-type tobacco is comprehensive and the income increases rapidly. In the 21st year, the company achieved a revenue of 5.085 billion yuan (+ 21.32%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.006 billion yuan (+ 22.12%), reaching the equity incentive target. In 21 years, the company's new tobacco business increased by 381.16% year-on-year to about 200 million yuan.
Stationery: the impact of double reduction is comprehensively controllable, and we continue to be optimistic about Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) rising quarter by quarter and entering a new stage of retail reform. The traditional business has maintained steady growth. Although affected by the epidemic, double reduction and other multiple factors, the company has optimized the product echelon and category expansion through high-end new product promotion and increased investment in this volume. The channel attaches importance to the head construction of the core business district. The regional share continues to rise among the domestic brands. With the weakening of the impact of the epidemic, the performance during the flood season of primary school is worth looking forward to; The new businesses kelipu and Jiumu 21 have achieved beautiful cash every year. In particular, kelipu's revenue and profit maintain rapid growth and will be better cashed in the post Jiumu epidemic period. Looking forward to 22 years, the traditional business will promote the retail operation reform, and klip & Jiumu will enter the performance release period. We believe that the company will maintain a better development trend. Corresponding to the 22-year valuation at the bottom of history (28x), we suggest the layout!
Risk tip: the trade environment continues to deteriorate, the real estate regulation exceeds expectations, the increase of paper price is lower than expected, and the double control policy is intensified.
