Core view
Crude oil related information:
Crude oil and related inventory: on February 18, 2022, the commercial inventory of crude oil in the United States was 416 million barrels, an increase of 4.5 million barrels per week; Gasoline inventory was 246.5 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) barrels; Distillate oil inventory was 119.7 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) barrels; Propane inventory was 3800.2 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 3.901 million barrels. U.S. crude oil production and number of drilling rigs: on February 18, 2022, the U.S. crude oil production was 11.6 million barrels / day, the weekly number remained unchanged, an increase of 1.9 million barrels / day compared with a year ago. On February 25, the number of drilling rigs in the United States was 650, with an increase of 5 in the week and 248 in the year; There are 224 drilling rigs in Canada, with an increase of 4 in the week and 61 in the year. Among them, there are 522 oil production rigs in the United States, with an increase of 2 in the week and 213 in the year.
Price change:
Among the 188 chemical products we monitored, the top three products with price increases this week were tetrachloroethylene (up 29.7%), liquid chlorine (up 19.9%) and butane (up 16.5%); The top three declines were melamine (down 18.3%), acetic acid (down 17.9%) and maleic anhydride (down 9.9%).
Monthly, the top three products with price increases were tetrachloroethylene (up 59.8%), butadiene (up 47.4%) and trichloroethylene (up 41.2%); The top three declines were acetic acid (down 31.0%), urea International (down 25.8%) and glycine (down 22.7%).
Price difference change:
The top three products with price difference increase this week are DMAC price difference (up 2295.8%), coal head ethylene glycol price difference (up 115.5%) and styrene (up 98.0%); The top three declines were polyethylene price difference (down 214.5%), polyvinyl alcohol price difference (down 188.4%) and butyl acrylate price difference (down 127.5%).
On a monthly basis, the top three products with price difference increase were butadiene price difference (up 603.9%), PX price difference (up 279.2%) and DMAC price difference (up 183.8%); The top three declines were R410A price difference (down 200.0%), butyl acrylate price difference (down 193.4%) and polyvinyl alcohol price difference (down 162.7%).
Investment proposal and investment object
Recently, the oil price is at a high level. The market is worried that the profitability of large refining and chemical will be affected after the oil price exceeds $80 / barrel. In terms of refined oil, as China’s refined oil pricing mechanism is more market-oriented, in the range of 40-130 US dollars / barrel, as long as the oil price does not rise or fall sharply, there is a high probability that there will be a reasonable profit range for refined oil in the future. In terms of chemicals, due to the existence of supply side constraints, the rising probability of cost side can be transmitted to the downstream. At present, the price difference of chemicals represented by polyethylene is at the bottom and the downward space is small. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , buy), Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ( Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , buy), Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ( Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , buy).
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the rise of crude oil and other commodities and the rise of inflation. It is suggested to pay attention to opportunities related to agrochemicals. In terms of chemical fertilizer, due to the extremely limited new capacity of global chemical fertilizer supply, the global supply and demand of chemical fertilizer maintain a fragile and tight balance. Although the recent price is relatively stable, there are expectations of continued price rise and trading opportunities in the sector from the recent rise of chemical fertilizer targets in US stocks. It is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) ( Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , overweight), Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) ( Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , buy), Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd.Company(002538) ( Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd.Company(002538) , buy) Sichuan Meifeng Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000731) ( Sichuan Meifeng Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000731) , not rated), Yangmei Chemical Co.Ltd(600691) ( Yangmei Chemical Co.Ltd(600691) , not rated), Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ( Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , not rated), etc. In terms of pesticides, high food prices support the demand and price acceptance of pesticides, and pay attention to the globally distributed pesticide enterprises with outstanding competitiveness Shandong Weifang Rainbow Chemical Co.Ltd(301035) ( Shandong Weifang Rainbow Chemical Co.Ltd(301035) , buy).
Risk tips
The price difference between ethylene and oil price further narrowed, the demand for chemicals was lower than expected, the price of crude oil fluctuated sharply, and geopolitics.
