Key investment points
In November, social finance increased by 2.61 trillion, an increase of 474.5 billion over the same period last year. The new scale of social finance was lower than the market expectation, which was about 2.81 trillion. The year-on-year growth rate of stock social finance continued to rise, with a year-on-year increase of 10.11%, up 0.09 percentage points from October. The year-on-year growth of social finance stabilized mainly driven by government bonds. Structural analysis: the lower than expected new scale of social finance in November was mainly due to the lower than expected growth of credit scale. The market has high expectations for marginal easing of real estate financing policy. Positive factor: financial postposition, which has obvious support for social finance; Matching bond financing also has a large-scale increment. 1. On balance sheet credit. On balance sheet credit. In November, new credit increased by 1.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 230.9 billion yuan over the same period last year. The transmission of wide credit is difficult, and the follow-up focus is on the changes of real estate demand side policies. In addition, we are not pessimistic about the reserve of bank infrastructure projects next year. In combination with the survey, the bank generally reflects that the project reserve next year is sufficient; Structurally, it will focus on high-end manufacturing, new kinetic energy and green finance. 2. Off balance sheet credit. The newly added undiscounted bank acceptance bills off the balance sheet basically did not increase. In November, undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by RMB – 38.3 billion, an increase of RMB 24.2 billion over the same period last year. The reason for the small net increase of undiscounted bills: the small net increase of undiscounted bills caused by bill impulse. 3. In November, the pressure drop of the new trust scale was at a high level of 219 billion, the trust supervision was not relaxed, the transition period of the new asset management regulations was nearly due, and the scale contracted more. In addition, the trust due in December has a large scale, which continues to drag on the current social finance. In November, the newly added trust was – 219 billion, a decrease of 80.3 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. In addition, due to the large scale of trust + entrusted loan compression in December last year, although the non-standard reduction pressure did not decrease in December this year, it is expected that it will not drag down the year-on-year growth of social finance. 4. Government bonds continued to develop, with a net increase of 815.8 billion. Financial backwardness formed a foundation for social finance. From January to November, 5.85 trillion government bonds were added, and the remaining 1.6 trillion is expected to form a certain bottom support for the economy in December and the beginning of the year. 5. In November, the financing scale of corporate bonds increased, matching the strength of government bonds. New corporate bond financing was 410.4 billion yuan, an increase of 326.4 billion yuan over the same period last year. 6. The scale of stock financing remained high.
The new credit scale in November was lower than the market expectation: the new loan in November was 1.27 trillion yuan, the market expectation was 1.53 trillion yuan, and the new scale decreased by 160 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. The credit balance increased by 11.7 points year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points month on month. Structural analysis: the overall effective credit demand is still insufficient, and banks still rely on bill impulse to maintain scale expansion. Mortgage continues to pick up, but it is mainly due to the backlog of projects in the early stage and the increment brought by the accelerated approval of banks. In the future, the focus of mortgage financing needs of real estate enterprises and residents is whether there is a corresponding easing on the demand side of the policy. 1. Resident loans. Residential mortgages continued to pick up. The speed of Bank approval accelerated, and the mortgage interest rate in some cities even decreased slightly. In November, the net increase in residential mortgage loans was 582.1 billion yuan, an increase of 77.2 billion yuan over the same period last year. Consumer loans are expected to have repeated outbreaks, and the net increase is lower than that in the same period last year. In November, the net increase in residential short-term loans was 151.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 96.9 billion yuan over the same period last year. 2. Enterprise loans. Enterprises continue to weaken in the medium and long term, which is expected to be mainly dragged down by the slowdown of manufacturing expansion. The margin of real estate development loan financing has improved. In November, medium and long-term loans to enterprises increased by 341.7 billion, a decrease of 247 billion over the same period last year. Enterprise short-term loans remained relatively stable; Notes continue to underpin the momentum and maintain the scale growth target. In November, the net financing of enterprise short-term loans and bills were + 41 billion and + 160.5 billion respectively, with an increase of – 32.4 billion and + 80.1 billion yuan compared with the same period last year.
The year-on-year growth rate of m2-m1 narrowed slightly: mainly because the year-on-year growth rate of M1 rebounded. M1 growth rate is more related to real estate sales. It is expected that M1 growth rate will also rise slightly as the financing margin of real estate enterprises recovers; One of the sustainability of the rise is to track the reconstruction of the virtuous cycle of the real estate chain; The other is the recovery of subsequent business operations as the structural monetary policy and loose policies such as RRR reduction slow down the business pressure. The year-on-year growth rate of M2 matched the credit growth rate, and the year-on-year growth rate decreased month on month. In November, M0, M1 and M2 increased by 7.2%, 3% and 8.5% respectively year-on-year, with a change of + 1, + 0.2 and – 0.2 percentage points over the year-on-year growth rate of the previous month.
Investment suggestion: at present, the safety margin of the sector is relatively high, and the asset quality constructs the safety margin of bank stocks. 1. The core investment logic of bank stocks is macroeconomic. For details, see our relevant in-depth report “how do bank stocks perform when prices rise? – summary and comparison of multiple rounds of performance of bank stocks in China and the United States”. We expect that the asset quality of listed banks will be stable in the next few years, which will build the safety margin of bank shares. 2. Banks have two main lines of stock selection. One is our long-term proposal to continue to embrace the core assets of banks: China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) . Their performance is highly sustainable and scarce. The boom of high-quality banks is certain and long-term. First, these scarce high-quality banks have a “market gene”, It is in the industry of “lying down to make money” (state-owned); therefore, in the era of banking differentiation, their growth can be continuously valued. Second, these banks occupy the sunrise track of the financial industry: wealth management and retail; our in-depth report estimates that the growth rate of wealth management profit in the next decade is 21% (see “wealth management industry” for details) Detailed calculation of income, profit and market value of: 10 trillion market value of gold track). The other is to choose banks with undervalued value, safe asset quality and expected successful transformation, and be optimistic about Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) and Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) .
Risk warning event: the economic downturn exceeded expectations.
