Investment summary:
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Baijiu enterprise expansion tide, tens of billions of funds to drive hundreds of thousands of tons of capacity increment.
Guizhou Province issued the notice on vigorously promoting the implementation of 2500 key private investment projects in 2022, involving more than 60 alcohol projects with a total investment of more than 70 billion yuan, which will add more than 200000 tons of capacity to Guizhou, close to the existing capacity of Guizhou.
In addition, Maotai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) and other liquor enterprises have also newly released or are carrying out production expansion plans.
The total output of the industry declined and the structure continued to adjust.
The total output of Baijiu industry has entered a declining period. In 2021, the output of Chinese Baijiu was only 617.6 million liters, which was almost cut off compared with 2015.
The core production areas of Sichuan and Guizhou grew against the trend. In 2021, Guizhou’s Baijiu production reached 34.81 million litres, an increase of 30.5% over the same period last year. Sichuan Baijiu enterprise’s revenue in 2021 was 345 billion 100 million, up 14% over the same period last year. Sichuan liquor’s revenue accounted for 57.2% of the Baijiu scale enterprises in the whole country, up by 8.4pct compared with the same period last year.
In addition to Sichuan and Guizhou provinces, such as Hebei, Jiangxi, Fujian, Shandong and Guangdong, Baijiu production declined.
Sichuan wine occupies half of the country and has achieved the goal of “one of two bottles”. In 2021, Sichuan liquor output reached 381.2 million liters, up 3.7% over the same period, and the growth of the liquor industry in the background of the Baijiu above the scale of the company’s output fell by 0.59%.
With more capital inflow and the decline of production and marketing, the Baijiu industry will have a more intense competition.
Market Review
In the last week, the food and beverage index rose by 2.97%, ranking sixth among the 28 industries in Shenwan, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.89pct. Among the sub industries, beer (+ 6.46%), other wines (+ 3.78%) and soft drinks (+ 3.60%) performed better.
Top 5 gainers of individual stocks: Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co.Ltd(600199) , Gansu Huangtai Wine-Marketing Industry Co.Ltd(000995) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702)
The top five stocks with declines: Namchow Food Group(Shanghai) Co.Ltd(605339) , St Cody, Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) , Cha Cha food, Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345)
Investment strategy
Key recommendations: 1 Companies that occupy a leading position in subdivided fields, have a good competitive pattern and strong ability to raise prices, and are expected to reduce costs, mainly recommend Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) , and pay attention to Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) ; 2. Ternary organism with strong downstream demand, limited upstream bargaining power and leading position in oligopoly pattern in horizontal competition; 3. For the beer industry with improved competition pattern and high-end certainty, focus on Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , China Resources beer and Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) ; 4. the companies with less influence and marginal improvement will recommend Eternal Asia Supply Chain Management Ltd(002183) (Baijiu brand operation and marketing effectiveness).
Risk tips
The risk of geo war has intensified, the recovery of consumption is weak, and the industry competition has intensified.
