The penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to rise, driving the development of charging pile industry. Since the second half of 2020, China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market has maintained rapid growth. It is estimated that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles is expected to exceed 5 million by the middle of 2022 and close to 10 million by 2025. With the rapid development of electric vehicle market and the rapid growth of ownership in recent years, the demand for electric vehicle charging is increasing. By the end of 2021, there were 7.84 million Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars and 2.617 million charging piles in the whole with a ratio of 3:1. There is still a big gap. Improving the construction of charging infrastructure will help alleviate consumers' mileage anxiety about new energy vehicles and support the expansion of new energy vehicle consumption. Electric vehicle charging is considered to be the "last mile" of electric vehicle promotion, which is very important for the promotion and development of electric vehicles.
As a new infrastructure, the construction of charging and replacing electricity has contributed to steady growth. In 2020, as a supporting facility for the promotion of new energy vehicles, the charging pile was written into the government work report for the first time, included in the "new infrastructure" and became one of the seven industries. The state has set the tone of "steady growth" in 2022. Previously, the national development and Reform Commission also proposed to carry out infrastructure investment moderately ahead of schedule. The policy of promoting infrastructure investment in 2022 is expected to continue. The investment and construction of charging piles and power stations for new energy vehicles belong to the new infrastructure series, which is expected to become one of the key areas of infrastructure to promote growth in 2022.
The market scale of charging pile will exceed 100 billion yuan. It is estimated that by 2022, the number of new energy vehicles will reach 12.21 million and the number of charging piles will reach 5.06 million. By 2025, the number of new energy vehicles will increase to 32.24 million and the number of charging piles will increase to 14.66 million. From 2021 to 2025, the compound annual growth rate of the number of new charging piles will reach 44%. We estimate that from 2022 to 2025, the market scale of charging piles will reach 124.1 billion yuan, 134.7 billion yuan, 148.2 billion yuan and 204.5 billion yuan respectively.
Investment suggestion: from the perspective of supporting demand, the number of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in China has increased rapidly in recent years, and the charging demand of electric vehicles has increased significantly. The development momentum of new energy vehicles is fierce, and the penetration rate will continue to rise in the future. In order to better support the promotion of new energy vehicles, it is urgent to speed up the construction of supporting infrastructure such as charging piles and power stations. From the perspective of policy driven, the state will set the tone of "steady growth" in 2022. As a series of "new infrastructure", the investment and construction of charging piles and replacement power stations is expected to become one of the key areas of infrastructure to promote growth in 2022. With policy support, the charging pile industry chain is expected to usher in a new outlet. Equipment manufacturers will benefit from the expansion of charging pile construction scale. It is suggested to pay attention to the core equipment suppliers of charging pile: Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) ( Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) ), Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) ( Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) ), Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) ( Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) ), Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) ( Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) ); Focus on the targets benefiting from the promotion of new energy vehicle power exchange mode: Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) ( Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) ), Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) ( Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) ); The rapid growth of new energy vehicle ownership releases huge charging demand. Charging operators will benefit from the profit improvement brought by the improvement of charging pile utilization, and pay attention to the operation leader Qingdao Tgood Electric Co.Ltd(300001) ( Qingdao Tgood Electric Co.Ltd(300001) ).
Risk warning. The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The construction of charging pile is less than expected; The utilization rate of charging pile is lower than expected; Market competition intensifies risks; Safety risks of electric vehicles, etc.
