Investment summary:
Talk every Monday: is the inventory of the sales target of car enterprises in 2022 pragmatic or radical?
A number of auto companies have released their sales forecasts for 2022, with an overall upward growth. Pragmatic or radical? From the sales target and recent sales trend, we can see one or two.
Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) : the sales volume of new energy vehicles will exceed 2.7 million in 2025
FAW Group: 4.1 million vehicles, with an increase target of 17.1%
Dongfeng Group: 4 million vehicles, with a growth target of 21%
Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) : 2.461 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 15%
Geely Automobile: 1.65 million, a year-on-year increase of 24.2%
Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) : 1.9 million, with an increase target of 48.44%
Byd Company Limited(002594) : 1.2 million vehicles, with an increase target of 64.38%
Chery Holdings: 1.5 million vehicles, with an increase target of 56%
Xiaopeng automobile: ensure 250000 vehicles and impact 300000 vehicles
Huawei: 300000
Chip shortage and epidemic situation will affect the automobile market for a long time, the overall market will remain stable, and the sales growth of new energy vehicles is highly certain. Therefore, we believe that auto enterprises with high proportion of new energy vehicles are easier to achieve the sales target. It is suggested to pay attention to mainstream new energy vehicle manufacturers such as Byd Company Limited(002594) , Xiaopeng and ideal.
Market review:
As of the closing on February 25, the auto sector was - 0.2%, and the CSI 300 index was - 1.7%. The decline of the auto sector was 1.5 percentage points lower than that of the CSI 300 index. In terms of sector ranking, the auto industry ranked 13th among the 28 sectors of Shenwan last week, and its performance in the week was acceptable. Since the beginning of the year, the automobile sector has been - 10.9%, ranking 23rd among the 28 sectors of Shenwan.
Weekly rise and fall of sub sectors: passenger cars (0.1%), commercial trucks (- 2.7%), commercial buses (- 0.6%), auto parts (0%), and auto services (- 1.6%).
Top five gainers and Losers: ST Zhonghua a, Zhejiang Yueling Co.Ltd(002725) , Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(002865) , Zhejiang Changhua Auto Parts Co.Ltd(605018) , Nanjing Aolian Ae&Ea Co.Ltd(300585) .
The top five in terms of rise and fall: Mingxin Xuteng, Shandong Liancheng Precision Manufacturing Co.Ltd(002921) , Wuxi Best Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300580) , Chengdu Haoneng Technology Co.Ltd(603809) , Ningbo Huaxiang Electronic Co.Ltd(002048) .
Investment strategy and key recommendations this week:
The automobile sector should pay more attention to the companies whose profits are determined to grow and the companies whose valuation center is improved. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the problem of core shortage and the opportunities for vehicle and traditional parts enterprises in the improvement stage. Therefore, we suggest paying attention to: competitive Vehicle Enterprises: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Automobile, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , etc. High quality enterprises in the parts sector with reasonable valuation at present: Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , Mingxin Automotive Leather Co.Ltd(605068) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Hunan Oil Pump Co.Ltd(603319) , Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) , etc; Technical service enterprises that are not significantly affected by production and sales fluctuations and have strong growth certainty: China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) etc.
Recommended combination this week: Byd Company Limited(002594) 20%, Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) 20%, Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) 20%, China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) 20% and Mingxin Automotive Leather Co.Ltd(605068) 20%.
Risk tip: the car sales volume is lower than expected; The implementation of stimulus policies for the automobile industry was less than expected; The risk of intensified market competition; Risk of shortage of key raw materials such as chips and rising cost of raw materials; The epidemic control was less than expected.
