Volume and price of commercial housing: on November 30, the transaction area of commercial housing in large and medium-sized cities increased by 14.19% month on month and decreased by 20.08% year-on-year. The transaction volume is still significantly lower than that in the same period of previous years. The average price of new houses in Baicheng fell 0.04% month on month, the first month on month decline since February last year.
Real estate loans: in November, the average interest rate of the first mortgage in key cities was 5.69%, down 4 bp month on month; The average interest rate of second home loan was 5.96%, down 3 BP month on month. The issuance of individual housing loans has also accelerated.
Policy: the people’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission stressed the need to maintain the “steady and healthy development of real estate”, and the third quarter monetary policy implementation report stressed the need to “implement the prudent management system of real estate finance”. Vice Premier Liu he reiterated the positioning of “housing without speculation”. Locally, many cities have improved the pre-sale conditions of commercial housing and strengthened the supervision of pre-sale funds. Tianjin has issued a “limit order” on house prices, which limits the capital turnover of real estate enterprises.
Key real estate enterprises: in November, the sales trading amount of top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 3.4% month on month; The proportion of external guarantee balance in net assets of many real estate enterprises such as Rongan Property Co.Ltd(000517) , Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co.Ltd(600684) , Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) is high; Shimao Group clarified the news of “Shimao and Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development Co.Ltd(600663) trust talk about extension” on the Internet.
Bond issuance and maturity: in November, the real estate industry issued 40.730 billion yuan of bonds, with a net financing of – 17.386 billion yuan through the bond market. From September last year to November this year, the bond stock of China’s real estate industry decreased by about 222.3 billion yuan.
Credit events and interest rate spread: two bonds were extended in November, involving an amount of about 2.91 billion yuan. The credit ratings of 8 entities and 34 bonds were downgraded. The bond credit spread (median) of industrial real estate industry decreased by 1.62bp month on month, of which the AA + credit spread decreased by 15.69bp month on month.
Summary and Prospect: Although the marginal sales volume of commercial housing has warmed up recently, it is still significantly lower than that in the same period of previous years. Many real estate enterprises are still facing the problems of blocked sales collection and pressure on the capital chain. Some real estate enterprises obtain new debt funds by means of guaranteed financing, and the guarantee scale far exceeds the net assets, so they need to pay attention to the credit risk behind large amount of guaranteed financing. The latest meeting of the Politburo mentioned “supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers”. It is expected that policy support will be limited to just needed groups, and the recovery degree of commercial housing demand may be limited.
