Why is yuanuniverse the next generation Internet? From the bearing situation of human civilization: fiction has always been the bottom impulse of human civilization. The yuan universe will truly change the way we interact with time and space, profoundly change the organization and operation of the existing society in the way of the integration of virtual and real, so as to give birth to a new social relationship of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) integration, and endow the real economy with new vitality from the virtual dimension. Human demand for the meta universe will be real: C-end users experience virtual life in an unprecedented immersive way, forming a new virtual real two-dimensional lifestyle, and games are the main C-end form and scene in the early stage of the development of the meta universe; In terms of b-end application, virtualization promotes the efficiency of manufacturing industry. For example, digital automobile factory can greatly improve the efficiency of manufacturers in design, production and testing.
When will the critical point of human virtualization come? The current background is the accelerated online migration of the epidemic, and the gradual in-depth integration of virtual and reality. The so-called don't ask where you came from, how do you know the way ahead? Without understanding the historical path and driving factors of science and technology, it is difficult to make a forward-looking and "fuzzy and correct" judgment on the future development of science and technology. We try to explore the "initiation climax stability" process of the two important waves of power revolution and mobile Internet revolution in history, and infer that the rhythm of human access to the virtual world still follows the three dimensions of technological maturity, commercial feasibility and market incremental space. According to the current underlying technology and commercial feasibility, the comprehensive breakthrough of the meta cosmic revolution is still relatively long.
The core framework for realizing the meta universe includes: hardware, network layer, computing power, virtual platform, protocols and standards, payment methods, content, services and assets, and consumer behavior. The technical architecture of metauniverse is not complex, but the implementation needs the cooperation of communication technology, computing architecture, algorithm and other technologies, follows the barrel theory, and has remained in the conceptual stage for a long time; With scientific and technological breakthroughs in various fields, the meta universe will eventually move from concept to reality.
Early commercial feasibility: the acceptance of VR and AR equipment at the C-end is high, the cost reduction path has been proved, and the commercial feasibility of meta universe access equipment will be verified soon. There are two core elements of commercial feasibility: first, the real existence of demand; 2、 The revenue cost structure of the product can bring business benefits and support iterative upgrading; In the high-tech industry where supply drives demand, the two factors are cause and effect. 1) Demand side: Facebook's oculus pricing scheme has been released, which is highly accepted by consumers; Apple's entry is expected to create popular products; 2) Supply side: short focus technology path and respective cost reduction path have been proved; The commercial feasibility has been basically verified by the industry.
Market space: in 2025, China's market space will be 340-640 billion yuan. By summing up the sub sectors of metauniverse (social networking, games, short video, e-commerce, etc.), it is estimated that the market space of metauniverse is 340 billion yuan. Through the calculation of metauniverse network effect by Metcalf's law, the market space is about 640 billion yuan.
Investment suggestion: for the investment opportunities of the meta universe, the grand narrative should not be underestimated in the long term, and the rhythm of technological progress should not be overestimated in the short term. 1) VR and AR industries are expected to usher in an inflection point. Shunyu optical technology, Goertek Inc(002241) and Facebook (meta) are recommended; 2) games bring profits as C-end killer applications. Tencent holdings, netease-s and roblox are recommended; 3) pay attention to the development of meta cosmic infrastructure such as computing power and AI, and NVIDIA is recommended.
Risk analysis: data privacy supervision; Protection of minors; Blockchain supervision; The commercialization of VraR is less than expected
