In November, social finance continued to stabilize, credit demand was still weak, and the steady growth policy is expected to be strengthened. In November, the number of credit structured bills increased, and the general credit of enterprises was weak, reflecting the continuous weakening of enterprise demand. Under the steady growth policy, the medium and long-term credit of residents continued to increase in November, the large issuance of local bonds and the improvement of corporate bonds led to the stabilization of social finance growth, and the real estate policy environment continued to improve. In the context of weakening economic momentum, the follow-up steady growth and real estate policies are expected to continue to improve.
The end of valuation and policy confirmed that steady growth will continue to catalyze the recovery of valuation. At present, the positions and valuations of the banking sector are at historically low levels, and the dividend yield continues to rise, reflecting the full pessimistic expectations of the market for possible risks such as economy, real estate and urban investment. With the continuous digestion of negative factors and the acceleration of stable growth policies such as credit easing, especially the continuous improvement of real estate policies, the market of the banking sector continues to be expected.
Under the long-term main line of structural reform, operation and management ability may be the core of stock selection. We recommend: Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , and suggest paying attention to Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , etc.
Demand is still weak, and the monetary environment is expected to improve under the stability maintenance policy
In November, RMB loans increased by 1.27 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 160.5 billion. From the perspective of structure, the trend of more continued bills and less general loans of enterprises reflects the continuous shortage of demand; The medium and long-term growth of residents improved year-on-year, reflecting the accelerated issuance of mortgage loans. Among them, in November, enterprise loans increased by 567.9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 213.3 billion, structurally, only bills increased by 80.1 billion, while short-term loans and enterprise medium and long-term loans increased by 32.4 billion and 247 billion respectively, indicating that the effective credit demand continues to be weak. The performance of residents’ medium and long-term loans improved, with an increase of 582.1 billion, an increase of 77.2 billion year-on-year, which is expected to be related to the acceleration of the margin of bank mortgage investment; Short term loans (+ 151.7 billion) for residents decreased by 96.9 billion year-on-year, which may be related to the impact of epidemic outbreaks in many places on Residents’ consumption demand and willingness. Looking forward to the follow-up, combined with the setting tone of supervision and stabilizing the economy and the guidance of cross cycle policies, the credit demand may improve marginally under the background of the implementation of stability maintenance policies.
Local bonds and direct financing drive the growth rate of social finance to stabilize and recover
In November, the year-on-year growth rate of social finance increased by 0.1 percentage point to 10.1% compared with October, The increment (2.61 trillion) increased by 478.6 billion year-on-year, mainly due to corporate bonds and local bonds. The issuance of local bonds accelerated in November, with an increase of 815.8 billion, superimposed on the wrong pace of issuance, resulting in an increase of 415.8 billion year-on-year. The corporate bond environment improved, with an increase of 410.4 billion, better than that from September to October (127.6 billion and 20.3 billion respectively), an increase of 326.4 billion year-on-year. In November, trust loans continued to fall, with an increase of 80.3 billion year-on-year; undiscounted bank commitments (- 38.3 billion) decreased by 24.2 billion year-on-year; entrusted loans increased year-on-year for several consecutive months, reflecting the gradual improvement of entrusted loans. In November, stock financing increased by 129.4 billion, with an increase of 52.3 billion.
Fiscal expenditure increased and m2-m1 narrowed
In November, RMB deposits increased by 1.14 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 961.2 billion, mainly affected by the year-on-year decline of Financial deposits and non bank deposits. In November, fiscal and non bank deposits decreased by 728.1 billion and 25.7 billion respectively, down 542.4 billion and 877.3 billion respectively year-on-year. We believe that the year-on-year decrease in fiscal deposits reflects the increase in financial support; The year-on-year decrease in non bank deposits may be related to the increase in the allocation of funds, local bonds and credit bonds. General deposit (residents and enterprises) added 1.68 trillion yuan, an increase of 194.2 billion year-on-year, or related to the decline of bank Consumption Willingness and the marginal enhancement of savings willingness under the epidemic. Under the influence of non bank deposits, M2 increased by 8.5% year-on-year in November, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; however, M0 and M1 increased by 1 percentage point, 0.2 percentage point to 7.2% and 3.0% respectively from the previous month, reflecting the marginal improvement of enterprise business activity 。
Risk warning: large-scale outbreak of real estate default risk; The economy fell sharply, exceeding expectations.
