This week (2.21 ~ 2.25) focuses on: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has triggered concerns about international food supply
[pigs] the average price of pigs this week was 12.34 yuan / kg, up 0.54% on a weekly basis. The average wholesale price of pork was 19.37 yuan / kg, down 4.53% on a weekly basis. In terms of feed, the price of compound feed for fattening pigs this week was 3.68 yuan / kg, up 0.82% on a weekly basis. In January 2022, the number of fertile sows in China was 42.9 million, a month on month decrease of 0.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%. Under the background of the continuous decline of pig prices and the further rise of feed prices, it is expected that the production capacity of fertile sows will be increased. At present, the stock inertia remains high, and the contradiction between high cost and high supply may break the consistency expectation trap in the pig market. We expect the pig price to hit the bottom twice in the second half of this year. At present, the breeding sector has entered the adjustment period, so it is particularly important to select the right target. We once again emphasize paying attention to the high-quality target with “financial stability + growth”, adhere to the allocation idea of “one large and two small”, provide safety cushion for the large target and enhance the flexibility of the small target. It is recommended to pay attention to Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , and continue to recommend Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) and COFCO Jiakang.
[seed industry] the spot price of corn this week was 2732.5 yuan / ton, up 0.24% on a weekly basis; The spot price of wheat was 2913 yuan / ton, up 1.19% week on week. USDA predicts that there will still be a gap in the supply of international wheat in the year 21 / 22, and the global inventory consumption of corn and wheat will decline for the fifth consecutive year, to 25.0% and 35.8% respectively. In addition, the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine further exacerbated the concerns of the international market about the shortage of food supply, and the CBOT wheat price hit a record high since 2009; Although China’s dependence on grain imports is low, it will still support China’s prices through import cost transmission to a certain extent. China attaches great importance to food security, and the commercialization of genetically modified organisms is accelerating. It is suggested to pay attention to high-quality seed enterprises ( Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) ) and transgenic technology companies ( Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ) with leading scientific research strength and GM first mover advantage. In the future, they will fully benefit from the double dividends of “cycle” and “growth”, and the market share is expected to further increase.
[animal protection] as of February 25, 2022, a total of 59 veterinary drug GMP certificates have been issued this year, of which 57 meet the requirements of the new GMP, and only 6 produce veterinary vaccines. In January 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of the number of batches of vaccines issued for pigs was from high to low: porcine parvovirus vaccine + 50.0%, porcine circadian vaccine + 12.66%, foot-and-mouth vaccine + 2.86%, classical swine fever vaccine – 26.95% and Porcine Pseudorabies Vaccine – 46.21%. February 22, The Ministry of Rural Agriculture issued the national Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) quality and safety improvement plan for the 14th five year plan , it is proposed to improve the packaging, label, QR code identification and electronic traceability system of veterinary drugs, which will further improve the symmetry of veterinary drug quality information, force veterinary drug enterprises to pay more attention to product quality and service quality, and then accelerate the process of optimizing the competition pattern of the industry. At present, the prosperity of the animal protection industry is gradually recovering under the catalysis of the research and development progress of non plague vaccine. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading companies with strong R & D strength and comprehensive product coverage ( Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) , Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) ).
Risk warning: the slaughter volume of pigs is lower than expected Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price fluctuates sharply; The outbreak exceeded expectations.
