The wave of new energy vehicles has become a consensus between the state and auto enterprises. Based on the benchmark goal of achieving carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutralization by 2060, China has successively launched “double credit policy”, purchase and travel restriction, charging pile and other infrastructure construction, battery recycling policy and other promotion measures to promote the healthy development of the industry. The EU proposed a bill to tighten the carbon emission assessment target in 2030 from 48g / km to 43g / km, and major European economies have launched new energy vehicle exemption policies. The United States proposes to achieve 100% clean energy economy in the future and achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. At the level of automobile enterprises, the new energy forces represented by Tesla and the traditional forces represented by the public have set higher sales targets for new energy vehicles. Overall, the wave of new energy vehicles has become a consensus between the state and auto enterprises.
The growth rate of lithium battery production expansion is obvious, but there is still a phased gap. From the perspective of production expansion, from 2021 to 2023, the new production expansion of global power lithium battery manufacturers were 257, 519 and 492gwh respectively; The total downstream demand from 2021 to 2023 is 280.46, 376.2 and 534.15 GWH respectively. Assuming that the production capacity remains at full capacity and full sales, there are still capacity gaps of 23.46gwh and 42.15gwh in 2021 and 2023 respectively.
In the next three years, the total new lithium battery equipment space will be close to 300 billion yuan. On the premise of considering equipment depreciation, according to the production expansion progress and demand, According to the calculation of 185-200 million yuan (decreasing year by year) of single GW equipment investment, from the perspective of battery manufacturers’ expansion of production, it can be seen that in the next three years (from 2021 to 2023), the space of lithium battery equipment is 65.79 billion yuan, 118.77 billion yuan and 120.25 billion yuan, with a total increase of 304.81 billion yuan; from the perspective of power battery required downstream, the space of lithium battery equipment is 70.368 billion yuan, 92.074 billion yuan and 125.846 billion yuan, with a total increase of 288.288 billion yuan.
Compared with the core indicators, the first and second tier manufacturers with competitive advantages are more attractive. We compare with five core indicators: growth ability, profitability, R & D strength, customer structure and order situation. Measured by revenue and personnel expansion, Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) has outstanding growth ability; Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) , Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) have more advantages in improving profit margin; In terms of R & D strength, Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) comprehensive strength is better; In terms of customer structure, Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) and Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) are more recognized by large power battery manufacturers; At the order level, Foshan Golden Milky Way Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300619) and Shenzhen Yinghe Technology Co.Ltd(300457) performed well. On the whole, the first and second tier manufacturers with competitive advantages are more attractive.
Investment advice Recommend Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) (300450. SZ), Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) (688006. SH), Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) (688518. SH) and {688499. SH). Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) is the leader of the whole line of domestic lithium battery equipment, with outstanding comprehensive strength, complete categories and high-quality customers. It is expected to continuously open up the market space by virtue of the platform strategy. Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) As the leader of lithium battery equipment, it will benefit from the performance growth stimulated by overseas new energy policies. Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) as a leading supplier of precision laser welding equipment and automation solutions in China, it will benefit from the expansion of leading power battery manufacturers. Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) started with the consumption of lithium battery, and will usher in rapid development with the breakthrough of power lithium battery.
Risk tip: the expansion of power battery production is less than expected, the calculation of market space is less than expected, and the downstream demand is less than expected.
