Key investment points
Data overview
In November, the increment of social finance was 2.61 trillion yuan (an increase of 478.6 billion yuan year-on-year), and the stock of social finance was + 10.1% year-on-year (growth rate + 0.1pc month on month). In November, new RMB loans were 1.27 trillion yuan (a decrease of 160.5 billion yuan year-on-year), and the balance of RMB loans was + 11.7% year-on-year (growth rate - 0.2pc month on month). The growth rate of M2 was 8.5%, down 0.2pc month on month; the growth rate of M1 was 3.0%, up 0.2pc month on month.
Core view
There was little increase in credit in November, which belongs to the momentum in the early stage of credit easing. Steady growth is the greatest certainty. We should grasp the general trend and continue to be optimistic about the wide credit at the end of 2021 and 2022. In December, we will fight big finance, and the banking sector will focus on the following recommendations: Societe Generale / Ping An + postal savings / Nanjing / Everbright + China Merchants Bank / Ningbo.
Detailed interpretation
1. Changes in credit and social finance?
Government financing is gradually driving the wide credit, but the effective credit demand is still weak. (1) Social finance rebounded from the bottom, with a growth rate of + 0.1pc to 10.1% in November, mainly driven by government and corporate bonds. The drag items were mainly weak credit growth and the contraction of trust loans caused by the explosion of real estate. (2) Credit growth bottomed out, with the growth rate of - 0.2pc to 11.7% month on month in November, mainly due to the weak demand for medium and long-term loans by enterprises and the disturbance of short-term loans by residents. We are still firmly optimistic about wide credit. It takes time for credit reserves, and it becomes more obvious in the later stage.
2. What are the positive signs?
Mortgage loans are still improving, and local debt financing is expected to stimulate credit demand. It is expected that the credit growth will resume in December, with the annual credit growth rebounding to 12.0% and the social finance growth rebounding to 10.8%. (1) The correction of real estate policy implementation continues to be confirmed. The medium and long-term loans of residents have increased month on month and year-on-year. (2) the issuance of local bonds is expected to stimulate the financing demand. Local bonds have increased by 789.1 billion year-on-year, while fiscal deposits have decreased by 542.4 billion year-on-year. It is speculated that it may accelerate the expenditure and form the physical workload, thus driving the credit relief at the end of 2021 and 2022.
3. How does it affect bank stocks?
Steady growth is the greatest certainty. We should grasp the general trend and firmly value big finance.
(1) Steady growth is the general trend, and at present, broad credit is ready to go. ① less credit growth means that broad credit is needed to stabilize growth, and the key depends on the project. ② under the background of local bond issuance in place and accelerating the formation of physical workload at the end of the year, it is expected that credit growth is expected to continue to pick up. (2) Pay close attention to policy trends, and the central economic work conference is imminent. Pay close attention to supporting plans and measures to stabilize growth.
Risk tip: macroeconomic stall and significant exposure of adverse.
