Industry core view:
2022.2.212022.2.25: the new power industry rose by 4.25% this week, while the CSI 300 fell by - 1.67% in the same period, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.92pct. It ranks first among the 31 industry sectors of Shenwan.
Key investment points:
New energy vehicles: on February 24, the general office of the Shanghai Municipal People's government issued the implementation opinions on further promoting the construction of charging and switching infrastructure in the city, pointing out that a moderately advanced urban charging network should be formed to meet the charging demand of more than 1.25 million electric vehicles by 2025, and the vehicle pile ratio in the city should not be higher than 2:1. Establish a new charging and switching infrastructure system characterized by high-level information interconnection, perfect intelligent technology standard system, sound construction and operation management mechanism, unified and orderly benefit people's livelihood. We believe that the vehicle subsidy has declined, but the policy focuses on the infrastructure construction of new energy vehicle industry. From the market feedback, consumers have certain expectations for the price change of new energy vehicles after the decline. In addition, there is an urgent need for the improvement of infrastructure such as charging piles. Recently, with the decline of subsidies and the rise of battery raw material prices, auto enterprises bear the cost pressure, but they can increase benefits by reducing costs through scale effect, improving the structure of battery suppliers and innovating battery technology. We believe that high-end models will be dominated by high nickel batteries, while low-end models equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries will have more and more significant price advantages in the future. We are optimistic that the penetration rate of lithium iron phosphate battery will be further improved in 2022, and we suggest paying attention to relevant cathode targets. It is recommended to pay attention to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ), Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) ( Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) ) and Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) ( Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) ).
New energy power generation: in terms of photovoltaic, the price of silicon continued to rise this week, but the increase narrowed. Near the end of February, some silicon material enterprises began to negotiate orders in March. It is expected that the output of silicon material in March is limited and the demand for superimposed terminals is strong, which indirectly drives the operating rate of silicon wafer end, increases the demand for silicon material, and the gap between supply and demand stimulates the price rise. The output of silicon material is the bottleneck of the supply chain, and the price will become the valve to adjust the supply distribution. However, the terminal demand is strong, and the rise and fall of short-term product prices will not affect the high increase of the annual installed capacity. It is suggested to pay attention to Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) ( Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) ), Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) ( Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) ), Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) ( Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) ), Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ( Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ) and Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) ( Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) ). In terms of wind power, the bidding price of wind turbines continued to be low this week. Recently, China Resources Power announced that the first bid winner of the 100MW wind power project in Ulat Middle Banner of China Resources power is vision energy, and the bidding unit price is 1889 yuan / kW; The first bid winner candidate of China Resources Power Abaga banner beligutai 500MW wind power project is prospective energy, and the bidding unit price is 2027 yuan / kW. The candidate for the second bid is Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , and the bidding unit price is 2107 yuan / kW. In the context of maintaining the parity of wind turbine prices, the demand for wind power construction will continue to release. We recommend Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) ( Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) ), Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) ( Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) ) and Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) ( Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) ).
Hydrogen energy: on the evening of February 23, Shanghai Nar Industrial Co.Ltd(002825) ( Shanghai Nar Industrial Co.Ltd(002825) ) announced and Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.Ltd(600848) economic development (Group) Co., Ltd. (Lingang group) signed the strategic cooperation agreement. Shanghai Nar Industrial Co.Ltd(002825) will invest in three major projects in Lingang group Park, including core parts project in hydrogen energy field, key equipment project in hydrogen energy field and hydrogen energy industry research institute, To achieve breakthroughs and domestic substitution in key parts of hydrogen energy, the first phase of the cooperation is planned to invest 300 million yuan, and an industrial investment fund of 200 million yuan will be established to promote the open and innovative development of hydrogen energy. We believe that after hydrogen energy is distributed by more and more enterprises, its core parts and key equipment have the trend of domestic substitution. It is recommended to pay attention to Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) ( Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) ), Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) ( Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) ) and Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) ( Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) ).
Risk factors: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Safety risks of new energy vehicles; Affected by the epidemic, the opening of photovoltaic market was less than expected; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; The approval and commencement of offshore wind power are not as expected; The wind power project has been approved and the grid connection is not as expected; The growth of photovoltaic installed capacity is lower than expected; The investment in power grid is less than expected.
