The year-on-year growth rate of social finance bottomed out and rebounded
Although the monthly increment of social finance was slightly lower than expected, only 2.61 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the wind average forecast value of 2.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 474.5 billion yuan year-on-year in a single month; However, the growth rate of social finance has declined for nearly a year, ushering in a substantive inflection point. In November, the stock of social finance increased by 10.1% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month. The increase in social finance growth was mainly due to the accelerated issuance of local bonds in November, with an increase of 815.8 billion yuan in government bonds, an increase of 415.8 billion yuan year-on-year.
The loan performance was weak, with a year-on-year decrease again
RMB loans from social finance increased by 1.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 228.8 billion yuan. In addition to the reasons for the small amount of loans in the same period last year, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased by 247 billion yuan year-on-year in November, which can be attributed to the insufficient infrastructure and weak real estate investment at the end of the year. The growth of bill discounting and short-term loans slowed down, with an increase of 80.1 billion yuan and a decrease of 32.4 billion yuan respectively year-on-year. The increment decreased compared with the previous month, which may be affected by the rise of the manufacturing industry in November. Therefore, real enterprises reduced their demand for short-term financing turnover. Residents’ loans unexpectedly decreased by 19.7 billion yuan year-on-year, which was mainly dragged down by residents’ short-term loans, which decreased by nearly 96.9 billion yuan year-on-year. Medium and long-term loans to residents increased by 77.2 billion yuan year-on-year, an increase over the previous month, and banks continued to increase mortgage investment.
The implementation of stable credit will be accelerated after the Politburo meeting
The structure of new loans reflects that there are few high-quality assets. Although the policy requires banks to invest more housing related loans, banks mainly supply the loan increment to low-risk individual housing loans. Banks are not willing to invest in real estate corporate loans, and there are few projects at the end of the year, so the growth of medium and long-term loans is weak.
Therefore, the significance of the Politburo meeting in early December is self-evident. The meeting called for “promoting the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry”. The so-called “virtuous circle” is to deal with the relationship between finance and real estate, that is, to speed up the resolution of risks in the real estate industry and restore the investment of healthy real estate development loans and personal housing loans. In the future, we expect that the regulators will properly correct the past policies and accelerate the credit repair and overall credit stability of the real estate industry. In December, the people’s Bank of China (PBC) announced to cut the reserve requirement and interest rate (refinancing), and the monetary policy of stabilizing credit is on the verge. Next year’s fiscal “front” Superimposed credit volume, the credit expansion in the first half of the year is worth looking forward to. In fact, the upward inflection point of social finance growth in November also reflects the determination of the top level to some extent, using local bonds to hedge the decline of loans. In the early stage of credit easing, we should not demand the synchronous improvement of total amount and structure, but pay more attention to the leading signal of policy.
Optimistic about the valuation recovery of the banking sector
At present, the valuation of the banking sector has rebounded at the bottom, and the valuation will continue to repair driven by stabilizing credit and adjusting positions at the end of the year. The market will see the first quarter of next year. China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(600908) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) are recommended.
Risk warning: the economic downturn exceeded expectations; The introduction of policies is not as expected; The epidemic has repeatedly restricted the movement of people
