Investment summary:
Market situation: this week (2.19-2.25), the A-share real estate index (Shenwan real estate) increased by - 3.22% (last week - 0.73%), and the A-share market (wandequan a) increased by - 0.45% (last week 1.70%); The H-share real estate index (keriney real estate leading index) rose - 9.78% (last week - 3.03%), and the H-share market (Hang Seng Index) rose - 6.41% (last week - 2.32%).
This week, the performance of A-share and H-share real estate sectors were weaker than the market.
Industry fundamentals:
The sales situation in low-energy cities is still grim. From the data, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in 45 cities (2.1 ~ 2.24) was - 25.5% year-on-year and - 27.1% year-on-year last month; The transaction area of second-hand houses in 16 cities (2.1 ~ 2.24) was - 35.9% year-on-year and - 30.1% year-on-year last month.
The inventory level of new houses is stable, and the decontamination cycle continues to rise. From the data, the cycle of commercial housing in 15 cities (as of 2.25) was 584 days, compared with 497 days in the same period last month. The supply and demand of the land market are weak, and the land transaction continues to decline. According to the data, the cumulative land construction area of 100 large and medium-sized cities this year (as of 2.27) was - 52.7% year-on-year, and - 49.0% year-on-year last week; The premium rate of land transaction in 100 large and medium-sized cities (2.21 ~ 2.27) this week was 0.2% and 3.9% last week; The total land transaction price of 100 large and medium-sized cities this year (up to 2.27) was - 66.5% year-on-year, and - 64.0% year-on-year last week.
The issuance of domestic bonds of real estate enterprises has significantly warmed up. From the data, the issuance scale of domestic real estate bonds (2.1 ~ 2.27) has accumulated - 18.3% year-on-year, and the scale of last month was - 57.5% year-on-year; The issuance scale of overseas real estate bonds (2.1 ~ 2.27) was - 90.1% year-on-year, and the scale of last month was - 86.7% year-on-year; The scale of trust financing (2.1 ~ 2.27) accumulated - 68.4% year-on-year, and the scale of last month was - 84.7% year-on-year.
Investment strategy: Recently, many places have introduced the relaxation of housing loan policy, the mortgage environment has been continuously improved, and the number of cities that reduce housing loan interest rate and down payment ratio has gradually increased. We believe that the focus of the policy is shifting from the risk of real estate enterprises' capital to the risk of vicious circle caused by the stall and decline on the demand side. At present, low-energy cities are facing huge sales pressure and serious lack of market confidence. It is expected that more cities with high sales pressure will successively introduce stability maintenance measures to gradually reverse the situation of both sales volume and price. We believe that the care policy of the financing section will promote high credit real estate enterprises to gain advantages in the land and M & a market. The continuous land acquisition and promotion ability and high-quality credit endorsement are also expected to seize the opportunity when the demand recovers and further improve the market share. Recommended China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) . The support of the financing side will gradually overflow to the stable private enterprises after meeting the requirements of the stable central enterprises and real estate enterprises in the head. The market will gradually restore confidence in the stable private enterprises. It is suggested to continue to track the leaders of the stable private real estate enterprises, such as Longhu group and country garden.
Risk tip: the risk that the implementation of industrial policies is less than expected, the risk that profitability continues to decline, and the risk that sales are less than expected.
