In 2021, the pharmaceutical industry made certain adjustments under the influence of policy, market style transformation, high position and other factors. At present, the overall absolute and relative valuation has been at the central level for nearly 10 years, and has a certain allocation value. We suggest that next year, we should optimize the bargain hunting layout in the sub sectors with high immunity to health insurance policies from the three dimensions of innovation, consumption and internationalization.
From imitation to innovation is a deterministic trend in the development of China’s pharmaceutical industry. Under the background of fierce competition in China, internationalization is expected to become one of the important breakthroughs. We are optimistic about platform companies with sufficient product pipelines and strong commercialization ability and CXO industrial chain with determined prosperity.
The logic of import substitution in the field of medical devices remains unchanged. It is suggested to pay attention to some products with high clinical value, large import substitution space, benefiting from technological progress and relevant leading companies in innovation and transformation; Subdivided fields and related companies with high immunity of medical insurance policy and strong consumption attribute. In addition, the internationalization of medical devices also deserves attention.
Covid-19 epidemic has pushed the vaccine industry into a new stage of development. Industry policy immunity is high, class II vaccine consumption attribute is strong, and the logic of heavy products driving industry growth remains unchanged. It is suggested to pay attention to leading companies with strong R & D ability and rich product pipelines.
The blood products industry has high policy barriers and strict supervision. At the same time, the product pattern and competition pattern are relatively stable. Since this year, the new pulp station has been significantly loosened, and the industry is expected to enter a new growth stage. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises with obvious advantages in obtaining pulp stations and expanding pulp sources.
It is recommended to pay attention to Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) (leading in the medical device industry, the target is scarce, and the market expansion at home and abroad is large), Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) (leading in CXO, the performance growth is determined), Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Corporation Limited(600161) (leading in blood products, the growth is boosted by slurry volume and varieties), Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) (leading in China’s vaccine, which is expected to enter the harvest period of independent products), Autek China Inc(300595) (leading in domestic OK mirror, the prosperity of the industry is determined).
Risk warning: the impact of epidemic situation exceeds expectations; Further tightening of industrial regulatory policies; The centralized purchase of drugs and devices exceeded expectations, which had a negative impact on the performance; The negative impact of the continuous escalation of Sino US trade frictions; The performance growth of listed companies is lower than expected; Risk of continued deterioration of economic situation outside China; Overall market systemic risk.
