Core view
Review of sales data: the passenger car production and sales data of January 2022 released by the passenger Federation: the retail sales volume of that month was 2.092 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 4.4% and a month on month increase of – 0.6%; The wholesale sales volume was 2.172 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.8% and a month on month increase of – 8.2%; The output was 2.059 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 10.4% and a month on month increase of – 16.5%
The advance of the Spring Festival holiday resulted in a year-on-year decrease in the effective production and marketing days in January, and the epidemic situation in some areas affected the terminal performance. In January 2022, the retail sales volume of passenger cars reached 2.092 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 4.4% and a month on month increase of – 0.6%, mainly due to the advance of the Spring Festival holiday to January, the effective production and sales days decreased year on year, and the superposition of the epidemic situation in Tianjin disturbed the terminal sales. With the gradual strengthening of production and batch sales in recent months, the overall market supply has warmed up, helping manufacturers to actively welcome the start of the new year, and the improvement of the retail end can be expected. From the perspective of structure, (1) in January, the retail sales of luxury cars were 290000, with a year-on-year increase of – 5% and a month on month increase of 18%. The growth trend of traditional luxury cars in the new year was strong; (2) The retail sales of independent brands reached 940000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 11% and a month on month increase of + 1%. The leading enterprises of independent brands performed very well and achieved significant growth in the new energy market. (3) The retail sales of joint venture brands were 860000, with a year-on-year increase of – 17% and a month on month increase of – 7%, of which the Japanese share was 19.2%, with a year-on-year increase of – 2.2pct, the American share was 8.2%, with a year-on-year increase of – 1.2pct, and the German share was 23.5%, with a year-on-year increase of – 2.3pct.
The sales volume of new energy vehicles is disturbed, and the growth rate of plug-in hybrid is beautiful. In January, the retail sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 347000, with a year-on-year increase of + 132.0% and a month on month decrease of – 27.0%; The wholesale sales volume was 412000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 141.4% and a month on month decrease of – 18.5%. The decline trend of wholesale and retail sales was basically the same as that in January 2021. It is expected that it is mainly due to the high base in December of last year caused by centralized delivery at the end of the year. Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) retail penetration rate in mid January was 16.6%, up 10 percentage points year-on-year, but decreased month on month. Diversification of new energy passenger vehicle market, Byd Company Limited(002594) pure electric and plug-in hybrid dual drive consolidate the leading position of independent brand new energy; The performance of traditional automobile enterprises represented by Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) and Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) is relatively outstanding. There are 11 enterprises with wholesale sales exceeding 10000 vehicles, of which Byd Company Limited(002594) (93000 vehicles), Tesla China (59000 vehicles) and SAIC GM Wuling (40000 vehicles) are the most prominent. In terms of models, the wholesale sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 333000, a year-on-year increase of + 130.4%; The wholesale sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 79000, a year-on-year increase of + 202.1%. In terms of structure, the wholesale penetration rate of independent brand new energy vehicles is 32.0%, that of luxury vehicles is 22.9%, and that of mainstream joint ventures is only 2.7%. In January, the sales of high-end electric vehicles and medium and low-end electric vehicles were good, including 105000 A00 wholesale sales, accounting for 32% of pure electric vehicles; A0 grade wholesale sales volume is 51000, accounting for 15% of pure electric; Class A shares 22%, stable; Class B sold 101000 vehicles, down 14% month on month, accounting for 30% of the share, slightly increasing.
The prosperity of independent brands in the head of investment suggestions continues to rise. We suggest to continue to pay attention to Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ( Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) . SZ), Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ( Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) . SH / 2333. HK), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) ( Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) . SH); It is suggested to pay attention to the comprehensive leader Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ( Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) . SH), the subject of scarce lighting controller Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ( Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) . SH), and the supplier of active and passive safety for intelligent driving Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) ( Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) . SH).
Risk tip 1. The risk of car sales not reaching the expectation; 2. Industrial chain risk caused by chip shortage.
