Market review: last week (2022.2.21-2.25), the Shenwan mechanical equipment industry index rose by 0.4%, the CSI 300 index rose by – 1.7%, and the machinery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.1pct. Shenwan 31 primary industries and 12 sectors rose, and the mechanical equipment industry ranked 12th, with the overall performance in the upper reaches.
This week’s view: the demand for power generation projects in China promotes the demand for photovoltaic equipment, and pays attention to the related subjects of photovoltaic equipment. Recently, the second batch of large-scale wind power photovoltaic bases are planned and issued. By 2030, the planned installed capacity is 455gw, including 200GW in the 14th five year plan and 255gw in the 15th five year plan. CPIA estimates that the global PV installed capacity will be 195240gw in 22 years (170gw in 21 years), and the global PV installed demand will continue to boom. At present, the operating rate of photovoltaic links has increased, the prices of silicon materials and silicon wafers have stabilized, the large-size silicon wafers and n-type batteries have accelerated, and the bidding for battery and module projects has accelerated. In the case of increased demand for external installed capacity in China + accelerated bidding in the near future, it is recommended to pay attention to the related subjects of photovoltaic equipment.
Key investment points:
Cpia-240gw large-scale PV installation in 195 is predicted. According to the data of China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA), it is estimated that 75-90gw of new PV installed capacity will be added in China and 195240gw in the world this year. According to CPIA, the proportion of large-size silicon wafer (210mm + 182mm) has increased from 4.5% in 20 years to 45% in 21 years, and it is expected to reach 75% in 22 years; It is estimated that the proportion of n-type batteries will increase from 3% to 13.4% in 22 years. By the end of 22, the production capacity of TOPCON is expected to exceed 35gw and hjt is expected to exceed 13GW. In the past 22 years, silicon wafer large-size and n-type batteries have accelerated. It is suggested to pay attention to the improvement of the demand for silicon wafer and battery chip equipment.
Lithium battery equipment: the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan is printed and distributed, focusing on the equipment related to energy storage. Recently, the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration issued the energy storage plan for the 14th five year plan, proposing that the energy storage will enter large-scale and large-scale commercialization from the initial stage of commercialization in 2025, and the new energy storage will be fully market-oriented in 2030, which requires the electrochemical energy storage performance to be further improved and the system cost to be reduced by more than 30%. Power battery projects started intensively at the beginning of this year. According to the statistics of OFweek lithium power grid, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , China Innovation airlines, honeycomb energy, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) to 2025, the production capacity plans are 670, 600, 500, 600 and 300gwh respectively. The accelerated expansion of battery enterprises will bring sufficient orders to lithium battery equipment manufacturers this year and next. Under the accelerated promotion of energy storage and intensive commencement of battery projects, lithium battery equipment has fully benefited.
Semiconductor equipment: in the past 22 years, the capital expenditure of China’s wafer factories continued to increase, and we are optimistic about the domestic substitution opportunities of semiconductor equipment. This year, China’s Fab production line construction is expected to still achieve rapid growth: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) 2021 capital expenditure of $4.5 billion, 2022 capital expenditure of $5 billion is expected; Huahong semiconductor’s capital expenditure in 2021 was $939 million, and it continued to expand its 12 inch capacity in 22 years. It is expected that 22q4 will gradually release 30000 pieces of new capacity / month. According to semi’s prediction, global semiconductor equipment sales will reach US $103 billion and US $114 billion in 2021 and 2022, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 44.7% and 9.7%. China has become the world’s largest semiconductor equipment market, and domestic semiconductor equipment has achieved key technological breakthroughs in many subdivided fields. With the increase of downstream capital expenditure and domestic substitution, China is optimistic about the investment opportunities of semiconductor equipment whose localization rate is expected to continue to improve.
Risk factors: the issuance of special bonds is less than expected, the localization process of semiconductors is less than expected, and the industry competition intensifies the risk.
