Key investment points:
The industry index outperformed the market, and individual stocks rose and fell. From February 7 to February 28, the CSI 300 index rose 0.39% and the bank index rose 1.10%. Among the 30 primary industry indexes (CITIC), the bank index ranked 19th in the range. In the banking sector, the index of large state-owned banks rose 0.36%, the index of national joint-stock banks rose 1.96%, and the index of regional banks was flat. Shares are mixed, with each other. The top five performers are: Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) Bank Of Suzhou Co.Ltd(002966) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank Corporation(002958) .
In January, the increment of social finance reached a new high, the growth rate of M2 was further improved, and the LPR was flat month on month in February. In January, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, which continued to maintain the expansion range, but the ring ratio fell slightly; CPI rose by 0.9% year-on-year, from decline to rise month on month, and the year-on-year increase fell; PPI rose 9.1% year-on-year, continued to decline month on month, and the year-on-year increase fell. In January, the scale of social financing increased to a new high, loans, bonds and stock financing increased year-on-year, and the year-on-year decline of off balance sheet financing narrowed. At the end of January, the M2 balance increased by 9.8% year-on-year, 0.8 and 0.4 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year respectively. The 1-year LPR announced on February 21 was 3.70%, and the LPR over 5 years was 4.60%, both of which were unchanged from the previous month.
The development of indemnificatory rental housing was supported by financial supervision, and the pilot scope of commercial pension insurance and pension financing was expanded. The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the guidance on bank insurance institutions supporting the development of indemnificatory rental housing. The guidance requires all kinds of bank insurance institutions to give full play to their institutional advantages, grasp the characteristics of financing needs of indemnificatory rental housing, and provide targeted financial products and services. The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the notice on expanding the pilot scope of pension financial products. The notice stipulates that the pilot scope of pension financial products will be expanded from “four places and four institutions” to “ten places and ten institutions” from March 1, 2022. The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the notice on expanding the pilot scope of exclusive commercial endowment insurance. The notice stipulates that from March 1, 2022, the pilot area of exclusive commercial endowment insurance will be expanded to the whole country, and endowment insurance companies are allowed to participate in the pilot on the basis of the original six pilot insurance companies.
Investment advice. It is expected that in 2022, the net interest margin of the banking sector will be low before and high after, the growth rate of total assets of the banking industry will be improved, the asset quality and provision coverage will continue to improve, and the performance growth will drop slightly, but still remain at a high level in recent years. It is believed that the current extremely low valuation level fully reflects the pessimistic expectation of the market on the credit risk exposure and macroeconomic downturn of the real estate industry. At present, the sector has high allocation value and maintains the investment rating of “stronger than the market”. It is suggested to focus on the head state-owned banks and joint-stock banks with solid asset quality, as well as the head urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks in regional economically developed areas.
Risk tip: the asset quality has deteriorated significantly, resulting in systemic risk.
