\u3000\u30001. SHFE tin price broke through 340000 yuan / ton, a record high. Since 2020, the global tin price has continued to rise. As of February 25, 2022, the settlement price of LME tin futures was reported at US $45000 / ton, a year-on-year increase of 52.9%, an increase of 171.5% over the same period in 2020; The market price of SHFE tin reported 340000 yuan / ton, up 76.4% year-on-year and 148.4% compared with the same period in 2020. Affected by the mismatch between supply and demand, the price of tin continued to rise and set a new record. In terms of supply, China’s tin ore is highly dependent on foreign countries. In 2021, China’s output was 83200 tons, while the import volume reached 184300 tons, including 147100 tons imported from Myanmar, accounting for 79.86% of the import volume. However, with the reduction of high-grade rich ore reserves in Myanmar, the output of tin ore in Myanmar began to decline. China’s import from Myanmar decreased significantly. The import volume in 2021 decreased by 12.23% compared with 2019. In terms of inventory, according to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, as of February 18, 2022, the social inventory of tin ingots was 31.85 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 56.97%, far lower than the inventory accumulation level in previous years. In terms of demand, tin is mainly used in the production of solder, which is a necessary material in the process assembly of electronic products. With the development of downstream automotive electronics, photovoltaic and other fields, the demand for tin is also growing steadily. Specifically, in 2021, the output of new energy vehicles reached 3.677 million, with a year-on-year increase of 152.54%. In 2021, the new equipment capacity of photovoltaic power generation reached 54.93 million KW, with a year-on-year increase of 13.96%. The increase of production and sales of new energy vehicles and the rapid development of clean energy will drive the increase of tin demand. Under the mismatch of supply and demand, the price of tin is expected to rise. With the systematic decline of tin ore grade in Myanmar, the reduction of exports is a foregone conclusion. Under the high dependence of the supply side, China’s tin production will be limited. In addition, with the acceleration of the increment of automotive electronics, photovoltaic and other electronic products, China’s demand for tin continues to be strong. With the supply side limited and the demand side booming, tin prices still have upward momentum.
\u3000\u30002. Over the past week, most of the prices of major non-ferrous metals rose, including lithium metal up 12.8% and cathode copper down 1.7%. In terms of metal lithium, as of February 25, 2022, the price of metal lithium was reported to be 2.54 million yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 10.9%. The main reason for the rapid rise of metal lithium price is that the demand for lithium as the core material of new energy battery continues to grow under the continuous growth of production and sales of new energy vehicles; In terms of cathode copper, as of February 25, 2022, the settlement price of cathode copper futures in the Chinese market was reported at 71000 yuan / ton, down 1.7% this week. The main reason for the decline in China’s copper price is that the construction pace of downstream wire and cable enterprises and refined copper pole enterprises is slow, the operation rate is significantly lower than that in previous years, and the demand side is weak.
\u3000\u30003. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out and gold prices rose. On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered military operations in Donbas, eastern Ukraine. After that, Russian troops broke through the border of Kharkov state and attacked Ukrainian military air defense facilities. On the same day, President zelens of Ukraine announced that the whole territory of Ukraine would enter a state of war and break diplomatic relations with Russia. Affected by the direct March of Russia, the price of gold rose sharply. The current price of gold in London rose by 4.1% on the same day, the largest increase in nearly a year. On February 24, Comex gold closed at US $192030/oz, reaching a maximum of US $1976.5/oz, a new high since September 16, 2020.
\u3000\u30004. Market review. In the past week, 8 of CITIC’s non-ferrous metal sub sectors rose, while copper sector fell. Among them, the top three sectors were: other rare metal sectors, nickel cobalt tin antimony sectors and lithium sectors, with increases of 6.6%, 5.6% and 3.7% respectively. In terms of individual stocks, the top three weekly increases were Jinzhou Jixiang Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603399) , Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) , Western Region Gold Co.Ltd(601069) , with weekly increases of 34.3%, 31.2% and 17.9% respectively; The top three weekly declines were Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Dongguan Eontec Co.Ltd(300328) , Yinbang Clad Material Co.Ltd(300337) , with weekly declines of 5%, 4.8% and 4.2% respectively.
Investment advice
The prices of gold, tin and other metals continue to rise, and relevant production enterprises may benefit, such as Western Region Gold Co.Ltd(601069) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Yunnan Tin Co.Ltd(000960) , etc.
Risk tips
The sales growth of new energy vehicles was lower than expected, the international epidemic was repeated, and the safety and environmental protection policies changed.
