Investment advice
The market entered the performance window period, and the rebound trend at the bottom of the medical sector was clear. We believe that 2022q1-q2 of the medical sector is expected to usher in an important opportunity window. This judgment is based on the following reasons: 1) the market has entered the performance window period of the annual report and the first quarterly report, the performance of the pharmaceutical sector is good, and the growth value is expected to be recognized by the market; 2) Medical insurance policies such as centralized purchase / fee control are expected to be gradually digested by the market, the excessive pessimism in the early stage is expected to be corrected, the long-term growth value of the medical sector still exists, and the policy’s incentive policies for medical innovation and private medical care are still clear; 3) The situation of normalized epidemic prevention and control is clear and further controlled. Hospital medical recovery and routine demand repair are the main melody of the growth of the pharmaceutical sector; 4) The valuation has dropped significantly, and the current cost performance of the medical sector is outstanding.
Medical devices: the growth of in-hospital diagnosis and treatment devices is strong, and the domestic substitution is accelerated. In the performance of the express report in 2021, most enterprises performed well. The current revenue growth recovery trend of hospital diagnostic and therapeutic devices is still strong. The rapid growth of the industry is mainly due to: enterprises have strengthened the promotion of new products and accelerated the trend of domestic substitution; The investment in industry innovation and R & D continues to grow, and innovative products continue to open up new market space.
In vitro diagnosis: routine business continues to recover, and covid-19 test still has elastic space. The epidemic situation caused by virus mutation is uncertain, and the market demand for covid-19 detection is elastic. The routine business of in vitro diagnosis continues to recover, and the resonance of capital, technology and policy is expected to accelerate innovation and upgrading. The overall construction of medical treatment has been steadily promoted, and the in vitro diagnosis industry is expected to benefit as a whole.
Medical beauty: both demand and supply have increased, and medical beauty has ushered in a rebound opportunity. With the epidemic gradually under control, the demand for light medicine and beauty will be gradually released. The products in the industry are constantly upgraded, and the Yimei injection Market is booming. In 2021, many companies launched new Yimei injection products, which will drive the further expansion of the market.
Chain pharmacies: leading pharmacies have developed steadily, and the trend of industry centralization is highly deterministic. With the gradual control of the epidemic, customers resumed their offline buying habits, and the passenger flow of pharmacies gradually recovered. The increase of industry concentration and the incremental market brought by prescription outflow will be conducive to the development of head chain drugstores.
Traditional Chinese medicine: the sector has maintained a good boom, value improvement and consumption recovery. Traditional Chinese medicine has experienced a price increase cycle, which brings opportunities to improve the OTC market value; With the support of national policies, the improvement of health awareness and the promotion of consumption, the consumption attribute of the traditional Chinese medicine industry has been enhanced and helped the market increase in volume.
Biological products: the policy expectation is gradually stable, and the growth capacity is worthy of investment. The registration information of Guangdong centralized collection of blood products and growth hormone was released, and the application pattern was good. At present, the market competition pattern of blood products and growth hormone in China is good, and the industry still has large potential market space. In particular, the current valuation price of the growth hormone industry is prominent, the uncertainty in the future is expected to be gradually eliminated, and the valuation is expected to be repaired upward.
Private medical institutions provide differentiated medical services. The rebound of local epidemic since the second half of 2021 has caused short-term interference to the industry, but does not change the long-term growth trend of medical service demand. With the further control of the epidemic, the delayed demand is expected to be released gradually, and the performance of the industry has entered a positive recovery channel.
Under the current situation, it is suggested to strengthen the allocation and layout of the medical sector, focusing on the cost-effective growth sectors such as hospital medical devices, traditional Chinese medicine, conventional in vitro diagnosis, pharmacy and growth hormone.
Key companies
\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 6 China Greatwall Technology Group Co.Ltd(000066) 1 Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) Shanghai Microport Endovascular Medtech (Group) Co.Ltd(688016) China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) 。
Risk tips
Covid-19 virus mutation makes epidemic prevention and control more difficult; The recovery of diagnosis and treatment demand is less than expected; The intensity of centralized purchase, negotiation and price negotiation of drugs and devices exceeded expectations; The supply of anti epidemic materials increased and the quantity and Price Bureau deteriorated; R & D and new product launch were less than expected.
