Sector market review
This week (02 / 21-02 / 25), the transportation index fell 2.94%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 1.67%, underperforming the market by 1.27%, ranking 19 / 29. Among the transportation sub sectors, the bus sector increased the most (2.47%), and the aviation sector decreased the most (- 7.12%).
Industry perspective
Express delivery: the first meeting of the leading group for the safety management of delivery channels was held in 2022, which pointed out the need to focus on the treatment of vicious low-price competition and empty package billing, and the flag was clearly opposed to “internal roll”. On the morning of February 25, Wei Zunhong, Secretary of the Party group and director of Zhejiang postal administration, led a team to Yiwu for investigation and proposed to further strengthen the supervision and management of the express market in key regions, continue to deal with prominent problems and maintain the market order of fair competition. According to the data of the State Post Office, the single ticket income in January was 10.45 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.35% and a month on month increase of 7.77% (reduction caliber). Express prices rose in the peak season, and the performance of express enterprises entered the cashing period. Yuantong released the performance express. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 2.092 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.42%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 was 1.138 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 198.87% Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) released the performance forecast for 2021, with a loss of 840950 million yuan, mainly due to the asset investment and the provision of asset impairment, which still put pressure on the annual performance. If the impact of the above asset impairment is excluded, the performance of 21q4 is expected to be profitable Focus on the development of Ezhou’s business cycle and optimize the quality of Ezhou’s products, so as to lay the foundation for the development of Ezhou’s international logistics structure and gradually reduce the cost of Ezhou’s products; With strong certainty in performance restoration, 21q4 made a profit of 2.4-2.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39% – 50%, deducting non net profit of 1.45-1.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41% – 56%.
Logistics: there is a high threshold in the field of chemical logistics. After Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) , Xiangshui and other accidents, the strict supervision restricts the supply of the industry, and the demand side still grows every year. The performance growth of leading chemical logistics enterprises is highly uncertain, focusing on Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co.Ltd(002930) . The upgrading of manufacturing industry increases the demand for tob productive supply chain logistics. Enterprises that pay attention to system investment and strong management will win and pay attention to Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) .
Airports: during the Spring Festival transportation period (from January 17 to February 25), the national civil aviation transported 39.82 million passengers, an increase of 12.5% over the same period last year and 3.8% year-on-year in 2020; 464000 flights were actually flown, an increase of 30.3% year-on-year. The national development and Reform Commission and other 14 departments issued several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry, and suspended the advance payment of value-added tax by air transport enterprises for one year. In February 11, 2022, the State Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the Pfizer’s COVID-19 oral drug Paxlovid (nalmatv tablets / Ritonavir Tablets) for the treatment of mild to moderate New Coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) in adults with severe risk factors. The 3 phase clinical trial showed that it could reduce the risk of 89% of hospitalization and death. Paxlovid is an important means of treating COVID-19. Catalyse international expectations. According to the “14th five year plan” for civil aviation development, the average annual growth of takeoff and landing sorties from 2019 to 2025 was 6.5%, lower than the previous growth rate of more than 10%, and the industry supply was tightened. The success of covid-19 drug research and development will help restore normal production and life, strengthen vaccination and accelerate the promotion of vaccines, the restriction policy is expected to be relaxed, the operation of airports will be significantly improved, the investment value of the sector is prominent, and it is recommended to actively allocate, with emphasis on Air China Limited(601111) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) .
Shipping: centralized transportation: the CCFI index was 342558 points, down 2.13% month on month; The SCFI index was 481847 points, down 2.6% month on month. Oil transportation: the crude oil transportation index BDTI closed at 904.00, up 29.3% month on month and 35.1% year on year. The refined oil transportation index bcti closed at 696.00, up 1.3% month on month and 28.2% year on year, focusing on the recovery of oil transportation.
Risk tips
The risk of sharp rise in oil prices, the risk of devaluation of RMB exchange rate and the risk of price war exceeding expectations.
