Report summary
Is the medical service sector still a good investment choice?
The superiority of the medical service business model has not been falsified, and the hospital is still the business with the strongest sustainable cash flow. In the second half of the year, the overall fluctuation of the medical service sector was large. The high base affected the apparent growth rate + policy interference + valuation digestion were the main reasons for the sector adjustment, but the long-term development trend of the industry was not affected. In the short term, the impact of the performance base in the post epidemic period is gradually weakened, and the normalized growth can be expected; In the medium and long term, the positioning of private hospitals to effectively supplement the public medical system will continue. Due to the compound interest effect of hospital brands, medical services are the sub sector with the strongest sustainable cash flow in the pharmaceutical industry. Under the background of tight overall supply and structural imbalance of China’s medical resources, it is expected to benefit from aging and consumption upgrading for a long time.
From the perspective of replicability, how to optimize the track?
The replicability of specialized hospitals is determined by both entry barriers and large-scale barriers. Entry barriers determine the number of industry participants, and large-scale barriers are the key to determine the competitive pattern of the industry. The higher the barriers, the higher the number of leading companies β Attributes become more and more prominent. 1) Entry barriers: for specialties with loose policies, small initial investment scale and low dependence on doctors, the entry barriers are relatively low. Tumor, chest and cardiovascular specialized hospitals have a large demand for initial funds, the barriers to entry of specialties such as Stomatology, rehabilitation and beauty are low, and ophthalmology and orthopedics are in the middle. 2) Scale barriers: the supply and management difficulties of doctors are the two most important factors constituting the scale barriers of specialties. Ophthalmology, orthopedics, beauty and other specialties have low dependence on doctors, and the expansion of specialized hospitals such as Stomatology, obstetrics and Gynecology, psychiatry and so on is more limited by doctors. On the whole, ophthalmology, Stomatology, rehabilitation, cosmetology, orthopedics and other specialties are highly reproducible, making it easier to cultivate large-scale chain medical institutions; The barrier of the tumor track is high, but the first mover advantage of the leading companies is also more prominent.
What determines the difference in the operating efficiency of different specialties?
The ability to obtain customers and profitability reflect the operating efficiency, and the change of industry supply and demand is reflected behind it. Starting from the characteristics of different tracks, incidence rate and frequency of diagnosis and treatment are important factors affecting the volume of passenger flow. It is reflected in the patient base + repetition rate, and the mouth is one of the most highly specialized attributes. Technology change is the main factor affecting the customer unit price. Through the continuous iteration of new technologies and the creation of demand through supply, the customer unit price can be improved. The typical representatives are ophthalmology and oncology. The expansion of diseases in the specialized track also has an impact on the operation efficiency. The horizontal expansion, such as the change of disease spectrum, will have a positive impact on the passenger flow, and the vertical expansion and lengthening the diagnosis and treatment cycle are expected to increase the per capita cost, such as tumor and assisted reproduction. The horizontal comparison shows that stomatology and ophthalmology are the most potential specialties with outstanding profitability. In the past decade, the passenger flow and passenger order have shown a double rising trend; In addition, the profitability of ear, nose and throat, rehabilitation, plastic surgery and beauty has improved significantly.
Stock differentiation, what characteristics should a good company have?
Private medical care is still in the early stage of integration, and doctors and brands build differentiation barriers. Except that the pattern of Ophthalmology and physical examination industry has been cleared, private leaders with absolute leading advantages have not appeared in other specialty tracks, but regional leaders with long-term growth potential in each subdivision track have emerged. These companies have the following common points: 1) form differentiated competition with public hospitals to meet the unmet needs of public medical system; 2) Pay attention to the construction of doctors’ echelon. Word of mouth is the main means of obtaining customers for serious medical treatment. Because consumer medical treatment is in the early stage of development, it still needs to be cultivated in the market at this stage; 3) Efficiency first, encourage flexible binding of core doctors and management talents, and improve profitability through supply chain management and improvement of medical technology level, so as to realize the replicability of business model.
Investment suggestion: private medical is still in the early stage of integration, and the enclosure and share expansion will continue. In the long run, private medical care is expected to become an important supplement to the public medical system. We are optimistic that medical service enterprises with the advantages of strong resource endowment, high management efficiency and integrated construction of medical, teaching and research are expected to grow into leaders in their respective subdivided fields. It is suggested to focus on Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , haijiya medical, Jinxin reproduction, Xi’An International Medical Investment Company Limited(000516) , Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric Co.Ltd(601567) .
Risk tips: medical policy risk, medical accident risk and the risk that the company’s operation is less than expected
